With Biden out, Trump is still the favorite

It’s official. After mounting calls from the Democratic establishment, President Joe Biden has exited the 2024 race. The American public had long called for it. For at least the last two years, even a majority of Democrats have wanted the president to step aside.

Biden leaving the race is not just significant but historic. No president has willingly exited this close to an election. It’s humiliating to be the first. But many progressives, some of whom formerly supported Biden, will delight. Perhaps this was karma for aiding and abetting the ongoing Gaza genocide.

Trump fans, meanwhile, aren’t so pleased. Some feel cheated that they invested so much in running against Biden only for him to depart before the election. Trump himself complained about this in a post on his Truth Social site. 

Others in MAGA world worry that Biden’s replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, may be a stronger candidate. What felt like assured GOP victory is no longer so certain. That’s likely why, even before his withdrawal, the Heritage Foundation launched legal efforts to keep Biden on the ballot.

But perhaps they have little to fear. Despite being far sharper mentally, Harris is probably weaker electorally.

She was never terribly popular, as her poor showing in the 2020 Democratic primary demonstrated. Until recently, polls consistently showed Harris doing worse against Trump than Biden.

That’s the female and minority tax acting in concert. Harris can be as sharp and compelling as she wants — America is still rife with bigotry. Many Americans will be reluctant to vote for a black woman. Research confirms that voters penalize non-male and non-white candidates. Ticking both boxes compounds the penalty. While Biden was a weak candidate, his biggest electoral strength outside of incumbency is being a white man.

To improve her odds, Harris should lean into her prosecutorial record. Voters are increasingly concerned about crime and want someone who will be tough on it. Although crime is actually down, that doesn’t matter. Elections are about feelings; Americans don’t know the facts, nor do they care.

Progressives will recoil at the vice president going full “Cop-mala.” They have long advised that leftist policy is the road to electoral success. History says otherwise. American progressives tend to only win with a stacked deck — deeply blue jurisdictions, typically with many young people and minorities.

Even money can’t save them. Consider Nina Turner. Three years ago, the former national co-chair of Bernie Sanders’s 2020 campaign ran for a House of Representatives seat in Ohio’s 11th district. She doubled her centrist opponent Shontel Brown in fundraising and led by 35 points just 70 days before the election. But Turner lost by nearly 7 percent. Outside of the friendliest conditions, progressives struggle.

As do their proposals. The Green New Deal started immensely popular. Just weeks into the Republicans’ smear campaign, its approval tanked. Similarly, Medicare for All peaked in popularity during the pandemic before falling precipitously. Now support hovers around 50 percent, as the policy remains highly susceptible to the critique that it would destroy private insurance. By comparison, Obamacare enjoys 62 percent favorability, despite Republicans removing the glue that was the individual mandate.

Being progressive is no electoral panacea. Most Americans simply don’t want what the left is selling. And the independent voters that Democrats need to win aren’t disaffected socialists — they’re conservatives who, on the issues, sit somewhere between the major parties.

The strategy of Democrats running to the right, while depressing, is theoretically sound. It delivered Bill Clinton landslides in 1992 and 1996. Meanwhile, George McGovern — who couldn’t shake the lefty label — lost in a historic landslide to incumbent President Richard Nixon.

This election will undoubtedly be far closer. Yet Harris will probably lose regardless of how she campaigns. As it stands, Trump is the odds-on favorite  and potentially leads in every major swing state. He may be on track to win bigger than Barack Obama did in 2012. And it’s unclear what Harris could do to swing things in her favor, given the durability of Trump’s support.

Trump’s strong position is a crushing indictment of the American electorate. His malfeasance — from bungling COVID to abusing innocent migrants — should make him utterly toxic. In a more reasonable country, he would be.

In the U.S., however, Trump enjoys a strong lead. Even with Biden out, Teflon Don looks poised to win the presidency again — for a third time, according to him.

Elias Khoury is a Palestinian freelance writer. His writing has appeared in Newsweek, Current Affairs and elsewhere.