Echoes of 1968: What can we learn about Harris-Trump from Humphrey-Nixon? 

An unpopular president finds his path to reelection untenable. Forced out, he hands the reins over to a vice president whose previous try at the party nomination ended in defeat. His polarizing opponent looks to ride a wave of national discontent and end a brutal war, but won’t tell anyone what that plan is. 

This scenario describes both the elections in 1968 and 2024. Add to it the presence of a Robert Kennedy and significant third-party support and the similarities are downright eerie. More than that, however, 1968 provides both hope and warnings to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 

The perilous path for Harris 

Just like Lyndon Johnson’s VP, Hubert Humphrey, Harris has proven to be a maladroit politician on the national stage. Also, like Humphrey, Harris is saddled with a Biden administration that is unpopular, losing on the major issues and has lost its credibility. Despite her own limited culpability in the failures of Team Biden, there is no evidence she opposed any of the president’s policies. But it hardly matters. VPs are always stuck with the blame for what their bosses have done. 

Both Presidents Johnson and Biden were undone by the prospects of defeat. Johnson had sunk to an abysmal 36 percent approval rating on the eve of his withdrawal. The YouGov benchmark polled immediately prior to Biden’s withdrawal scored him at just 38 percent approval days before he quit. While there is no archival polling on vice presidents, it is reasonable to assume Humphrey would track Johnson like Harris has tracked Biden. In that regard, Harris sits at 39 percent approve in the last YouGov poll. 

Johnson had Vietnam as his albatross; Biden has inflation and immigration. He scores miserably on both, at 58 percent disapprove on inflation (63 percent for independents) and 59 disapprove on immigration (62 percent for independents). Inflation remains the top issue for voters by far, regardless of affiliation. Immigration is the second most important issue: tops for Republicans and third for independents. 

It was in the Johnson administration that the “credibility gap” opened, destroying trust in the Oval Office. Similarly, Biden’s mental decline and the strong suspicion that his loyalists were hiding it have severely shredded the current administration’s own credibility — that problem will also shadow the Harris campaign. 

Harris may well benefit from a “relief rally” as the cratering Biden leaves the stage and if her formal announcement is decent. But reality will eventually set in. Without noticeable improvement on the main issues, Harris will back at square one, and a decided underdog to Trump. 

Trump: Coasting for trouble 

The similarities between Nixon 1968 and Trump 2024 are even more interesting.  

Richard Nixon, left for dead after losing the 1962 California governor’s race, completed the most remarkable comeback in American presidential politics by securing the GOP nomination, and was the prohibitive favorite over the fractured Democrats. 

But Nixon almost lost by playing it safe. He ran a generic campaign and, in a curious similarity to Trump, claimed to have a “secret plan” to end the Vietnam War, not unlike Trump’s mysterious claims that he will end the war in Ukraine. 

But the war in Ukraine is nothing like the Vietnam War in salience. This election, it’s inflation. But there too Trump has no plan. He just makes empty assertions, or in his own words from his nomination acceptance speech, “we’ll end lots of different things!” 

Trump is coasting, just like Nixon. Outside of promising to deport millions of illegals and getting tough, there is not a lot of meat on the bone, so to speak. His one concrete promise — to raise tariffs on China — is pro-inflation. Trump has been coasting on Biden’s bad news buffet for the past several months, and his team is all attack, all the time on Harris. While it’s always smart to define your opponent, it can’t be your only play. 

All of Trump’s gains in the polls are tied to failures by Biden, and none to anything Trump has done. From the Hamas war to inflation to immigration to the debate meltdown, even the incompetence of the U.S. Secret Service, Trump would be nowhere without the fumbling of the Biden administration. He is ahead by existing — and that’s a bad strategy in politics. 

An ominous finish 

The 1968 race was a very close win for a Nixon campaign that expected a romp. In October, Humphrey finally broke with Johnson on Vietnam and came out for ending the war. Humphrey went from 16 points down before Labor Day to nearly even. Nixon ended up winning by less than 1 percent.  

Yes, he won, but playing it safe almost cost Nixon the presidency. In fact, Nixon was elected with the lowest percentage since Woodrow Wilson in 1912.  

Of course, it is important not to stretch historic parallels too far. The war in Ukraine is a relatively minor issue compared to Vietnam, which dominated the race. Inflation is the crisis facing Harris — and inflation is not amenable to peace negotiations. Yet, it is true that Humphrey inherited a fractured Democratic Party, while Harris has a unified party behind her.  

In her favor, Harris is not anywhere near as far behind as Humphrey was. While the electorate has shown to be profoundly stubborn in shifting their preferences this election, Harris is benefiting from a rally within her own party, relieved that Biden has finally quit. 

But there is no question Harris has to prove she can handle being at the top of the ticket — something she has failed to do thus far. She needs a strong formal announcement speech and nomination acceptance speech. More importantly, she is going to have to break with Biden in a way that will attract independents and that key middle group of voters that dislike both Trump and Biden. 

The curious thing about this race is that Harris has a net unfavorable rating, but would win just by gathering only the voters who don’t dislike her. At 39 percent disapprove and 52 percent approve, according to the RealClearPolitics average (at the time of writing), if Harris can get 48 percent of the vote with 5 percent scattering to the nuisance candidates, that could win it for her. 

Trump remains unpopular, with just over 53 percent disapprove. He is coasting, trying to win by just attacking and living in the past. Trump remains the favorite for now, but he is leaving the door open for Harris — just like Nixon left the door open for Humphrey. The coin could easily flip the other way, and if it does, Trump will only have himself to blame. 

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.