For roughly three weeks this summer, it appeared that former President Donald Trump would cruise to a second term.
But then President Biden withdrew. And despite the race instantly changing, Trump’s messaging and campaign strategy did not change along with it. As such, Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed the race, even leading in some polls.
The vice president now leads in five of the seven most recent national polls and has closed the gap in most swing states, according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult Swing State Tracking poll.
As a veteran Democratic strategist who well understands the challenges my party faces in articulating a compelling messaging strategy, it has become increasingly clear that if Donald Trump wants to win, his campaign needs to make significant changes.
The first change must be finding a way to remain focused on the issues and drawing clear contrasts between his record and the policies he has said he would pursue with those of the Biden-Harris administration.
Put another way, in a race that has suddenly become competitive, Trump would benefit from realizing that discipline and coherent messaging are absolutely necessary.
Of course, this means forgoing comments about Kamala Harris’s race. Instead, Trump should center his attacks on the Biden administration’s record on key issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration and crime.
Indeed, on the economy — by far the most important issue — Trump should clearly and simply compare his plans for job-boosting corporate tax cuts, eliminating taxes on social security and tips, and extending the 2017 personal income tax cuts with Harris’s support for the largest proposed tax increase in recent history.
Moreover, Trump could make Harris defend the historic surge in inflation and rising costs of living that occurred under the Biden-Harris administration. Harris would likely struggle to do so, particularly as a full 60 percent of voters disapprove of the administration’s handling of inflation per a recent Economist-YouGov poll.
Conversely, by a 2 to 1 ratio (40 percent to 21 percent), voters think they will be better off financially if Trump — rather than Harris — wins per CNBC’s All-America Economy Survey.
Similarly, by 12 points (49 percent to 37 percent), voters believe Trump will be better at handling the economy than Harris, according to a recent Marquette University poll.
This should also include comparing Trump’s support for domestic energy production with Harris’s support for the Green New Deal and other inflationary policies that are unpopular.
In that same vein, on issues such as immigration and crime, Trump should lean into broad support for his policies, contrasting that with what voters perceive to be failures of the Biden-Harris administration.
On immigration, Trump has a commanding 18-point lead over Harris (53 percent to 35 percent) in terms of who voters trust more to handle immigration and the Southern border, per Marquette University.
Immigration is specifically a considerable opening for Trump, as Harris’s role as Biden’s handpicked “border czar” makes it easier to tie her to the chaos at the Southern border.
And on crime, Harris’s past support for the defund the police movement gives Trump a clear opportunity to draw favorable contrasts.
More than 8 in 10 (84 percent) of Americans — including 86 percent of independents — approve of Trump’s plan to combat the crime epidemic, according to Harvard-Harris polling, while just 39 percent of Americans approve of the Biden administration’s handling of crime.
To be sure, tying Harris to the Biden administration’s unpopular policies on critical issues should not be difficult, but Trump is doing everything possible to make it harder.
His attacks on Harris’ race, insistence on grievance politics — including picking fights with popular Republican governors — and social media ramblings have prevented Republicans from successfully linking Harris to the Biden administration’s record, her lack of an agenda or her progressive views.
To that end, staying on topic would also force Harris to confront her first genuine test of this election: telling the country what she stands for, her vision for the next four — or eight — years, and how she will address the challenges the country faces.
Harris’ campaign website is blank on any policy positions, and the longer Trump lets her off the hook by straying from issue-based messaging, the more she can avoid having to articulate a comprehensive agenda.
While refining a messaging strategy is the most important change, it is not the only one. Trump needs to do more to appeal to disaffected, soft Republicans and independents that he needs to win swing states.
For now, it seems that Trump did himself no favors in this regard with the selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), a populist in Trump’s mold, who has just a 24 percent approval rating according to ABC/Ipsos polling.
Vance may have been a result of Trump’s campaign feeling overconfident at the prospect of facing a weakened Biden, but that is no longer the matchup. Thus, Trump needs surrogates who can convince suburban women and Republican-leaning independents that he is their best choice.
Unfortunately, the top two Republican leaders who fit that bill — Nikki Haley and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp — have recently been targets of Trump’s ire and have offered only muted enthusiasm for his candidacy.
This is not to say that Trump is out of the race — not by any stretch. The election figures to be extremely close, and with nearly 90 days until Americans vote, virtually anything could happen to swing it in either candidate’s favor.
However, Trump clearly must make changes if he wants to avoid a repeat of his 2020 loss. He must speak beyond his loyal MAGA base to voters in the middle, offering a vision for a second term based on real solutions to the issues facing the country.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”