In her first full month as a presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead in both national and swing state polling, even overtaking Trump in some, as enthusiasm for her candidacy continues to grow.
However, beneath the surface, polls point to clear vulnerabilities for the vice president, who, despite the surge in support, must finally articulate an agenda to address the very real issues facing the country.
Put another way, polling suggests that despite Harris’s lead, her lack of a well-defined, centrist and positive agenda must be remedied at the Democratic National Convention, as the data indicates that this is a significant liability for the vice president.
Quite simply, Vice President Harris needs to tell voters where she stands and how she will address the issues that will determine the election — inflation and the economy, immigration, crime and foreign policy — otherwise her surge will dissipate as voters refocus on the issues that matter.
Indeed, despite Harris’s 2-point horserace lead (49 percent to 47 percent) in a recent Ipsos poll, the data indicates that on key issues, Harris is at a disadvantage relative to Trump, as by wide margins, voters generally prefer Trump’s policies and approach.
A comprehensive analysis of recent polls shows that Harris must seek to address key vulnerabilities through her policy agenda.
First, as to the economy voters cite inflation and the cost of living as the most important issue in the aforementioned Ipsos poll. On this, voters prefer Trump over Harris by 9 points (41 percent to 32 percent). According to Fox News polling, which also cited the economy as voters’ top concern, Trump has a 6-point lead (52 percent to 46 percent) over the vice president.
CNBC’s most recent All-America Economic Survey, which I noted in these pages last week, shows that, by a two-to-one margin (40 percent to 21 percent), voters believe they will be better off financially under a Trump administration compared to a Harris administration. In the swing states that will decide the election, voters prefer Trump’s approach to the economy by 7 points over Harris (42 percent to 35 percent), per Ipsos Swing State polling.
For her part, Harris has unveiled the main pillars of her economic policy, although as Catherine Rampell described in the Washington Post, “It’s hard to exaggerate how bad this policy is,” suggesting that it will be a gift to Trump, who has long sought to portray Harris as too far left. It is too early to know how Harris’ plan will be received by voters, although it has been described as “aggressively populist” and “a sweeping set of government-enforced price controls” which is the opposite of the centrist agenda Harris needs to win over moderates.
Immigration and Border Security are often cited as the second most important issue following inflation and the economy. This is where Harris is the most vulnerable vis-à-vis her polling gap with Trump. Thus, it is absolutely critical that her agenda have a commonsense solution, steering clear of unpopular progressive policies.
Nationally, according to Ipsos, voters prefer Trump over Harris on this issue by 17 points, and Trump has a 14-point lead in the seven swing states. These findings dovetail with Fox News’s survey, showing that voters trust Trump more than the vice president by 19 points on border security and by 14 points on immigration generally.
Third, on crime and public safety, Harris’s past as a prosecutor should be emphasized when it comes to the issue of crime. While Trump is still the preferred choice across multiple polls, Harris does better on this issue than on the economy and immigration. In both the Ipsos swing state poll and the Fox News poll, voters believe Trump has a better plan to combat rising crime by 5 points, considerably smaller than his lead in other issues, but still, something Harris should seek to address.
On foreign policy, Harris will have to overcome perceptions that she is not a strong enough leader, is too liberal, and potentially too anti-Israel. This is a unique issue for the entire Democratic party as pressure from progressives to take a more hostile approach to the Jewish state increases.
Immediately before Harris’s selection to replace President Biden, nearly six in ten (58 percent) voters said the term “strong leader” either did not define Harris (48 percent) or were unsure if it did (10 percent) according to Politico-Morning Consult polling. These sentiments continue to be seen in voters’ perceptions of Harris vs. Trump.
The former president has a nine-point lead in both national and swing state polling conducted by Ipsos. Similarly, Fox News reports that Trump’s lead on this issue stands at seven points (52 percent to 45 percent). Looking at the war between Israel and Hamas specifically, Harris needs to chart a middle-of-the-road path, as voters already perceive her to be considerably further to the left. Nearly 4 in 10 (39 percent) of registered voters — including a plurality of moderates and voters over 45 years old, the most likely to vote — say their sympathies are more with Israelis in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yet just 14 percent of registered voters think Harris’s sympathies are more with Israel, per Economist-YouGov polling.
To be sure, a candidate’s position on Israel’s war with Hamas is unlikely to sway the election, but given that a plurality (39 percent) of voters believe that Harris is “very liberal” in the same poll, her agenda must move to the center if she wants to convince moderates in swing states.
Finally, not only do voters trust Trump more on issues, but in the two Ipsos polls as well as Fox News, compared to all issues tested, voters trust Harris the least on immigration and the border, foreign policy, the economy and crime.
Thus, the agenda Harris rolls out at the DNC must not only introduce her to voters in a way that emphasizes her leadership abilities, but also seek to change voters’ perceptions of her positions on key issues by tacking to the center.
Taken together, the data are clear: To have what could be considered a successful convention, Vice President Kamala Harris must stake out — and clearly articulate — a centrist agenda that not only defines her also but does so in a way that addresses the very real vulnerabilities that polling has revealed.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”