How the UK’s Tory fracture may foretell a GOP break with Trump  

Despite protestations to the contrary on both sides of the Atlantic, there have been several periods over the last half-century when British and American politics have seemed to align.  

The most obvious examples are the conservative resurgence led by Margaret Thatcher in the late 1970s foreshadowing the Ronald Reagan era in America in the 1980s, and Bill Clinton’s centrist New Democrats in 1992 paving the way for Tony Blair’s New Labour victory five years later. But the major new political development in each nation over the last decade has unquestionably been the rise of a more radical right-wing populism.  

It seems clear, for example, that the UK Conservative Party’s Brexit referendum in June of 2016 was also a harbinger for Donald Trump’s stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton a few months later. Since then, British Tories and American Republicans alike have indulged ever more recklessly in highly explosive right-wing populism, led by ethically equivocal opportunists like Trump and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. And now, such recklessness may be finally blowing up in the faces of both parties. 

In the recent UK campaign, the Conservative coalition broke apart, with Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform Party undermining Tory political fortunes in several hundred parliamentary races. The July British elections saw the Tories lose an astounding 250 seats in the House of Commons — they now have only 121 seats, the fewest in the Party’s two-century history. Reform Party candidates consistently polled 20 percent or more in key districts, drawing decisive votes directly away from the Tory base. This phenomenon and the role of smaller parties allowed Labor candidates to win 63 percent of Commons’s seats with only 34 percent of the vote nationally. 

A similar party-fracture may be awaiting America’s Republicans.  

For the last decade, numerous GOP leaders have consistently kowtowed to Trump’s ever more outrageous lies and political norm-violating, an exercise in self-debasing sycophancy perhaps unparalleled in American history. Now these chickens may be coming home to roost. 

Recent reporting by the New York Times shows the Republican donor class to be deeply concerned that Donald Trump has become increasingly erratic and unstrategic. Trump’s emphasis on patently clear lies and personal grievances about his 2020 election loss, when combined with his misogynistic, racially charged attacks on Kamala Harris, appear to be increasingly self-defeating electoral gambits.  

New polls show that in just in the few weeks since President Biden bowed out of the race in favor of Vice President Harris as the party nominee, Democrats have taken substantial leads in key swing states. This suggests an increasing possibility that Republicans may not only fail to regain the White House, but could also suffer large losses in Congress and at the state level as well. This marks a dizzying 180-degree change from the political state of play of just a month ago, when Trump was clearly ahead in swing-state polling. 

Of course, this also shows that the nearly three months until Election Day are a long time in American politics.  

Democrats must show discipline and cohesion to maintain their momentum. But if these new trends continue and the GOP loses badly in November, traditional conservatives will likely attempt to re-assert their authority within the party after two straight presidential losses by Trump, along with poor performances in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. However, such an effort by traditional conservatives is likely to lead to the exact same internecine fracturing among the Republican Party that the Tories are now experiencing.  

It goes without saying that Trump and his acolytes, not to mention millions of core supporters, will not go down without a fight for the soul of the GOP. Indeed, Trump himself has hinted that he may incite followers to violence in the aftermath of the coming election, as happened on Jan. 6, 2021. This is such a very real possibility that law enforcement, caught badly off guard four years ago, is now already preparing for it.  

One must hope that cooler heads prevail. But whatever the aftermath of an election loss, some degree of split within the Republican Party seems probable. 

In the UK, especially in the aftermath of the Brexit debacle, the British Conservative establishment made it clear that Farage and his extremist allies were not welcome in the Conservative Party, despite concerns that his Reform party would harm their 2024 election prospects.  

It is not clear the same can be said in America.

Trumpism has now metastasized to a new era of right-wing younger political figures like Sens. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), as well as former critics such as Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and dozens of others. Such radical but influential proto-populists as Steve Bannon have already indicated they will fight any attempt by traditional Reagan conservatives to reassert a more centrist Grand Old Party.

In contrast, half of Donald Trump’s own Cabinet during his presidency have refused to support his candidacy in 2024, reflecting the beginnings of a traditional conservative backlash. Thus, fault-lines lines are already clearly visible within the GOP.

America’s Democrats still have tremendous work left over the next 12 weeks to make sure that recent positive trends continue through Election Day and Trump is in fact soundly defeated. But early voting starts in September in some states and in October in most others, and Vice President Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz seem determined to run a tough but essentially upbeat campaign, focused on unifying the country against right-wing nationalists.

Meanwhile, Trump himself seems unable to change. “I am who I am,” Trump was quoted as saying last week. That’s exactly what the Republican Party, and the rest of us, should be afraid of. 

Paul Bledsoe served as a staff member in the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, the Interior Department, and the White House Climate Change Task Force under former President Bill Clinton.