As the 2024 presidential election enters its most critical weeks, following one of if not the most unprecedented periods in American political history, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is effectively deadlocked.
In an expanded four-candidate race, Harris and Trump are tied at 45 percent a piece, while Cornel West and Jill Stein each receive 1 percent. Without West and Stein, two left-leaning candidates, Harris’s slight 2-point lead (48 percent to 46 percent) is well within the margin of error.
In other words, this is an extremely close race, and both Harris and Trump have a credible path to victory.
New polling by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, looked at why the race is currently a stalemate and the opportunities for each candidate to separate themselves and gain an advantage.
To that end, despite running a truncated campaign, Harris has managed to narrow the advantage Trump had prior to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal.
Indeed, our post-convention poll shows that Harris’s favorability has dramatically improved compared to when Biden was atop the ticket, as a full one-half (50 percent) of voters now have a favorable opinion of the vice president, 4 points higher than Donald Trump’s favorability rating.
That is a significant 15-point increase from ABC News polling conducted immediately before Biden stepped aside, and 18 points higher than an earlier CNN poll, conducted right after the Trump-Biden debate.
Driving the gains for Harris is growing enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters — crucial Democratic voting blocs — which have rapidly coalesced behind her.
Harris’s favorability advantage, combined with Trump’s inability to refocus the campaign on the issues, has clearly helped Harris build a narrow lead. This comes despite Biden’s low job approval rating (41 percent), as well as voters’ preference for Trump’s and Republicans’ policies on many of the issues that matter the most.
As such, if this election is a personality contest, the vice president will almost certainly win, but if it is an election based on the issues, Trump is much more likely to be victorious.
To be sure, our poll shows that Harris has closed the gap between her and Trump on one key issue: the economy.
In terms of which candidate voters believe would be better for their personal financial situation, Harris (44 percent) and Trump (43 percent) were essentially tied, a noteworthy improvement from past public polling showing Trump with a large lead on this question.
Away from the economy, both candidates — understandably — have issues that work to their own advantage.
Our poll shows that Harris leads Trump on who voters trust to address core Democratic issues, with double-digit advantages over Trump on abortion (+24), health care (+14) and climate change (+13), along with notable leads on education (+9) and housing affordability (+4).
Conversely, Trump holds clear advantages over Harris on voters’ trust to address challenges at the southern border (+16), foreign policy (+9), energy and the economy (+5 each), as well as taxes and lowering the cost of living (+4 each).
However, it is important to note that, compared to past polling, Harris has narrowed the lead Trump had over Biden on key issues.
Trump’s 5-point lead on trust to handle the economy in our poll is a marked decrease from the 13-point lead Trump enjoyed over Biden in a late June survey from Yahoo News/YouGov.
In that same vein, Trump’s margins over the vice president on immigration, crime and foreign policy are unchanged between our polling and Ipsos polling from early August. This underscores that, despite the lack of a well-defined and plainly articulated policy platform, Harris has been able to keep the race tight.
That said, Harris and Democrats still face vulnerabilities.
Less than 3 in 10 (28 percent) voters say the country is on the “right track” — a unique liability for the vice president given her role in the incumbent administration.
Likewise, there is still a perception that the economy is in trouble, as just one-quarter (25 percent) of voters say the economy is “excellent” or “good” in our poll, with more than seven in 10 voters saying it is “fair” (30 percent) or “poor” (40 percent).
Among undecided voters, those who will likely decide the election, the situation is even more concerning for Democrats. These politically independent, ideologically moderate voters who largely backed Biden over Trump in 2020 (46 percent to 30 percent) are even more pessimistic about the state of the economy and more likely to believe Trump is the right person to fix it.
Just 17 percent of this critical group say it is “excellent” or “good,” and are nearly twice as likely to trust Trump over Harris to address the economy (Trump +9) than voters generally (Trump +5).
Further, there is a clear perception that Trump did a better job as president than Biden has. A majority (51 percent) of voters approve of the job Trump did, a 10-point advantage over Biden’s current job approval.
Our poll convincingly shows that Harris’s path to victory is making the race about personality, while for Donald Trump and Republicans, the best — perhaps only — road to winning is with an issues-based strategy that contrasts their policies with Democrats on the economy and inflation, immigration and foreign policy.
While Harris continues to benefit from the enthusiasm surrounding her candidacy, the GOP would be wise to emphasize unpopular policies of the Biden-Harris administration on key issues, tying Harris to an unpopular administration.
This could prove especially valuable as Harris doubles down on flip-flopping her positions on issues such as a southern border wall and approach to crime.
Notably, Harris’s strategy of reversing her previously articulated positions on issues or avoiding them altogether was on full display during her recent CNN interview.
In her first interview since becoming the nominee, Harris skirted around giving detailed answers on which policies she would pursue in office and largely evaded answering why her current positions on key issues — such as fracking or border security — are virtually the opposite of her previously articulated positions.
Ultimately, it is highly likely that the presidential race will remain extraordinarily close until next week’s debate. Whether or not Harris can win by avoiding the issues substantively, or whether Trump can refocus on the issues voters trust him and Republicans to address, are open questions.
At this point, in an unprecedented campaign, the data illustrates that both sides have a path to victory if they can follow it.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”