I live in Maryland and, even though it is a deep-blue state, we actually have ourselves a race here for Senate for the first time I can remember.
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) is running against former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Polls have it as a close race, one Hogan could actually win, as he was a wildly popular governor, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state two-to-one.
What’s weird about this race isn’t that Hogan could win, it’s the issue they’ve both decided to campaign on: abortion.
Abortion is always a political issue. It’s one of those permanent campaign staples of both sides because, in spite of what candidates actually say, no piece of legislation related to abortion is going to find its way out of Congress, no matter what. Sorry to break your heart, whichever side you’re on, but you’re being played as suckers by people who will, should they eventually win, swear up and down that they “work for you.”
That being said, while abortion is among the top issues for voters this year, anyone whose vote is determined by it either way has already made up their minds. The fight is over everyone else.
Immigration, the economy and inflation lead the list of voters’ concerns, and former President Donald Trump is viewed as being better able to handle all three — a testament to his general unpopularity, given that the national race is essentially tied.
Back in Maryland, Hogan made a national name for himself by complaining about Trump at every turn. That plays well in Maryland, at least with Democrats. But Democrats tend to vote for Democrats, so it’s unclear whom Hogan is hoping to appeal to by parroting what every Democrat is saying — why vote for the “lite version” when the real deal is right there?
Putting aside Hogan’s willingness to offer up criticism of the former president, even when no one asked, polls show him to be slipping out of striking distance of the lesser-known Alsobrooks, who was recently exposed as having cheated on her taxes for more than a decade, taking deductions created for low-income Americans.
How can Hogan be falling behind her? Well, abortion.
To watch the campaign ads, you’d have difficulty finding an ad by either candidate that isn’t about their commitment to abortion.
Alsobrooks accuses Hogan of ushering in a nationwide ban, even though he’s been unambiguous about the fact that he would not support one. Even the SuperPAC ads from the left are about Hogan limiting abortion.
For his part, Hogan’s ads are mostly about how he will protect abortion “because no one should come between a woman and her doctor.”
Putting aside that if an abortion provider is your primary care physician, you’ve got bigger problems than who to vote for, it is unclear whom Hogan is hoping to appeal to. Every pro-choice Democrat he might peel off from Alsobrooks could easily cost him a pro-life Republican.
What’s more, neither candidate is running ads related to what they would do on the economy or inflation. Hogan does mention securing the border, but only casually. The whole election is about abortion.
If it remains that way, Hogan loses. The state has 55 percent Democrat/Democrat-leaning voter registration vs. only 31 percent for Republicans. Playing on the other party’s terms rather than offering something different, especially on the issues that rate higher than abortion, is, well, simply stupid.
Hogan does not want to be associated with Trump, either for the sake of principle or electoral convenience, both of which will help him in Maryland. But that’s not enough to win. He has to offer something else, not just as an aside or an occasional break from his devotion to abortion.
Without a reason to vote for him, many conservatives annoyed by his constant refrain on abortion will simply stay home or skip the Senate race on the ballot.
It’s obvious why Democrats would want to make the 2024 election about abortion; fear is a great motivator and the alternative would be to talk about their miserable record on the economy, border, etc. It makes no sense why a Republican would follow suit.
Anywhere the defining issue of the campaign is anything other than the economy, inflation or the border, Republicans will struggle. Why Larry Hogan, who remains personally popular here, would not only allow his opponent to set the terms of the campaign, but also work diligently and spend his funds to keep them there, will go down as an all-time unforced political error.
Derek Hunter is host of the Derek Hunter Podcast and a former staffer for the late Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.).