What if Joe Biden was the better candidate all along?

With the Nov. 5 election just over a fortnight away, here is an intriguing thought experiment. 

By most accounts, the election is still a horse race too close to call. But although Vice President Kamala Harris quickly assumed the presidential mantle from Joe Biden and put in place an impressive start-up, October has not been particularly kind to her. Donald Trump has closed the electoral gaps, and some believe he is actually leading.

No matter who wins, we have to ask: Would President Biden have been a better candidate and choice despite suffering from the effects of age and 81 years? Further, suppose that the disastrous June 27 debate with Trump had not taken place, or that Biden had been firing on all cylinders that night. Would Biden have been forced to withdraw? And whether Harris loses or wins, some will ask whether Biden might still have been a better candidate.

Bob Woodward’s new book, “War,” might not be dispositive in representing Biden’s strengths and weaknesses. The book does add weight to this thought experiment, though. Woodward paints a very positive picture of Biden’s ability to lead and to govern despite making mistakes, most notably the disastrous withdrawal from Kabul.  

Woodward also reports that Biden’s obvious decline was physical and not mental. This was caused in part by prior medical conditions accelerating the effects of age on a body. There were also the strains of high office; the president refused to limit his overworked schedule despite valid criticisms that he was on near-permanent holiday in Delaware or Camp David.

Kamala Harris’s role as Woodward describes events was not as significant as Biden’s national security team, who were his band of brothers and sisters. And Woodward did not focus on domestic politics.

Today’s politics remain visual, whether on television or social media with a constant flow of posts that millions of subscribers download every day. In fairness, Trump is an entertainer, showman and salesman. He may be overweight and wear excessively long ties while obsessing about his finely coiffed hair, but he gets away with it. And Trump, like the Energizer Bunny, seems to have unlimited endurance.

The physical comparison between the two presidents could not be more striking. That must favor Trump and in a small way accounts for some of his widespread public support. He is also interesting — love him or hate him, Trump is far from boring. The size of his audiences at rallies confirms that.

Harris is a generation removed from both presidents. As President Vladimir Putin slyly observes, she has a “contagious” laugh and a very buoyant and positive attitude. That is refreshing and a counterpoint to Trump’s bleak and dystopian view of the world.

If Biden were still the candidate, he would have to overcome these physical and visual disparities with Trump. To do that, Biden would have to mount an aggressive campaign to portray Trump as a convicted felon, unfit for public office. For some reason, the Harris campaign has downplayed this conviction and his three other pending cases, as well as Trump’s major character flaws.

The public may have decided, as senior Democrats have, that Biden is too old to serve. Had he been re-elected, Biden would have been 86 at the end of his second term. Given his age, it is not impossible that Biden could suffer a major health event.  

Trump is only three years younger than Biden. He is certainly not immune to the vagaries of health, as his vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) understands. 

But Biden is not running.  And with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Biden now has an opportunity to help conclude a peace agreement in the Middle East. That would be Biden’s legacy. One hopes he will pursue that opportunity.

As I have previously written, Americans may not know the winner right away, given the likelihood of contested districts and recounts. Yet, when the 47th president is decided, at some stage, people may wonder whether the best choice was not Harris or Trump.  

In retrospect, perhaps America would have been better served if the 46th president Joe Biden won a second term.

Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD:  How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon.