Incumbent absence, challenger opportunity?

Members’ absence from Congress during the coronavirus crisis could spur an anti-incumbent challenge. Coronavirus is reshaping public attitudes and the political agenda in real time. A changed voter perception of members’ absence could offer incumbent challengers a rare and unforeseen opportunity.

Most of America has been in unprecedented lockdown for almost two months. With over 64,000 deaths and one million confirmed cases, it has been understandable. The question is whether it will remain so. Coronavirus is worse than anyone expected, but therein is also evidence of how rapidly opinion can change.  

Congress has followed America in sheltering at home. On March 12, the Capitol and Washington congressional office buildings closed to the public. On March 14, the House was out of session and working remotely, only partially returning to voice vote on two massive coronavirus response bills. On March 26, the Senate started teleworking. While the Senate has said they will return on May 4, the House reversed itself within 24 hours after saying it would also return; for now, it plans to return on May 11. 

Coronavirus is not just dominating the news, it is rewriting 2020 before our eyes. What started as the year of impeachment, is now solely coronavirus’s year. Previously anticipated issues are now eclipsed. 

Such rapid transformation has been hard on society; it also could be hard on incumbents — particularly their re-elections. Campaigns had been plotted, issues chosen, positions honed; all in readiness for races that could now be run far differently, leaving incumbents unprepared. Nowhere could their lack of preparation be more telling than regarding their own absence from Washington during the crisis. 

With November just six months away and primaries in between, time is short; and the shorter the time, the more a single issue can dominate. To understand a single issue’s potency, just look at how midterm elections pivot on a president’s performance. Although aware the president’s performance will dominate, his party rarely survives losing seats. Imagine the same single-issue effect without the forewarning.

America’s lockdown has created an accepted distinction between essential and non-essential workers. Essential workers must be on frontline duty on our behalf. Non-essential workers stay home. There is a perception danger for Congress seemingly to have implicitly self-selected themselves into the non-essential category by being absent from Washington. 

Coronavirus has also revised America’s perception of “service” and “serving.” Formerly, it was a generic term for any product personally provided by an individual — as in the “service industry.”  No more. Now, its meaning is elevated to being on the coronavirus frontline. 

Again, Congress finds itself in an awkward coronavirus condition. Every member designates their time in office as “service,” as “serving” their constituents. However, if you are not in Washington, how are you “serving?” 

Congressional incumbents’ danger from this coronavirus confluence is clear. There is a new unforeseen, major issue with universal public impact. The issue continues to evolve: What looked like reasonable sheltering in place at the time, may be viewed differently in coming months. 

Such circumstances are exactly what challengers seek against incumbents. In congressional races, incumbents overwhelmingly win. They are better funded, have substantial official resources, better media access and effective agenda control. Anything scrambling that status quo benefits underdog challengers. The chance to distill a race into a single issue that potentially puts the incumbent on the defensive would be very appealing. 

The House could be particularly vulnerable to such a challenger strategy. Because House districts are smaller, they have a narrower range of issues already. Usually, there is also less coverage of these races and less money spent on them. This makes them even more vulnerable to being dominated by a single issue.

Further, the House has a widening differentiation with the Senate in time away from Washington. The House was out for roughly two weeks prior to the Senate in March. Now they will be out for a week longer than the Senate in May.  

Contradicting the old saying, incumbents may find that absence does not make the heart grow fonder, when it comes to coronavirus and time away from Washington. For underdog challengers, it may be a tempting issue to raise with a hurting, frustrated electorate. 

Rarely does a major issue arise that could favor challengers. Rarer still does one arise capable of being used bipartisanly — by challengers of either party, and without appearing as a partisan attack. Coronavirus and incumbents’ absence could prove such a rarity and present an unusual — and, so far, unseen — threat to incumbents.  

J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department. He served as a congressional staffer from 1987 through 2000.