Stark differences in conventions reveal closer race in the election

Following both the Republican and Democratic conventions, we must ask two critical questions. First, what did each of them accomplish? Second, where do both parties stand now that the conventions are finished? Both parties provided a clear message, and voters appear to understand these stark differences between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

The divergent platforms can be summed up as follows. At the Democratic convention, Biden made the case that character and decency are both on the ballot. At the Repubican convention, Vice President Mike Pence made the case that the economy and law and order are on the ballot.

The remarks by Trump drew persuasive contrasts between himself and Biden in general areas, such as their visions for the country, and in more specific areas, like the economy and law enforcement. Further, in a way that was reminiscent of how Trump framed himself four years ago, the president is evidently running as an outsider against Biden, who Trump views as the candidate of the political class and the establishment.

The thematic attacks on Biden and the Democrats resonated, as Trump presented the choice between himself and Biden as a choice between freedom versus socialism and optimism versus negativity. “This election will decide whether we save the American dream, or whether we allow a socialist agenda to demolish our cherished destiny,” Trump said.

Further, his speech and the Republican convention as a whole made a clear case for the economy. Indeed, this is notable since the Democratic convention remarkably lacked a cohesive message on this issue. “We will build the greatest economy in history,” Trump said, later arguing that the election could decide “whether we rapidly create millions of high paying jobs, or whether we crush our industries and send millions of these jobs overseas, as has foolishly been done for many decades.”

The Republican convention underscored the message that this is the party of law and order. This was made even more impactful by the civil unrest in swing states like Wisconsin. “Your vote will decide whether we protect law abiding Americans, or whether we give free rein to the violent anarchists, agitators, and criminals who threaten our citizens,” Trump said.

However, the Democratic convention was also a success in the sense that it portrayed the ticket as effective and welcoming to a broad coalition of voters, while making an important case for the need to unite as a party in order to defeat Trump. Indeed, the Democratic convention was crafted to show how the character and leadership skills of Biden, which have been formed by his own personal struggles and life of public service, will make him a more competent and compassionate president than Trump.

Republicans can make a case for the strength of the economy before the pandemic. But the fact is that more than 180,000 Americans have died as a result of the coronavirus, and millions of jobs have been lost with many that are never coming back, largely as a result of the early downplaying of the pandemic and the lack of a national strategy from Trump, which lends credence to the attacks against him from the Democrats. His “failure of leadership has cost lives and livelihoods,” Kamala Harris said.

A look at the current state of the race shows Biden still the favorite to win. He leads by about 7 points, according to Real Clear Politics. But there is still a path for Trump if the economy picks up or if we get a coronavirus vaccine before the election. Republicans benefit from civil unrest, as this lends credence to their law and order message, while some Democrats refuse to denounce the violence. It is unclear if the law and order tactic, reminiscent of Richard Nixon and his appeal to the silent majority, will attract new supporters or change the minds of suburban voters.

While Biden did not have any jolt in the national polls after the Democratic convention, he maintained his lead over Trump. But it is also possible that Trump could receive a lift in numbers. Although Biden remains ahead and both conventions are behind us, it is clear to me that this election will be much closer than most are predicting in this campaign season.

Douglas Schoen is a consultant who served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the campaign of Mayor Michael Bloomberg. His latest book was “Collapse: A World in Crisis and the Urgency of American Leadership.”