The coronavirus doesn’t care about politics. It has no interest in your belief system, opinions, or victimhood. Viruses don’t think, they don’t “want” to do anything except replicate. Some scientists doubt viruses are even “alive.” Whether the coronavirus (or any virus) kills or disables is just an artifact to its replication.
At the same time, modern American politics and media have regressed into a simple-minded us vs. them, black vs. white black hole. More perniciously, people in public life are expected to choose a side in each and every issue and remain wedded to that opinion and dogma — regardless of changing circumstances and information.
The new religion in America is politics — and woe to anyone who violates the respective orthodoxies. In a world of relativistic politics and niche audiences this foolishness is profitable. In the world of coronavirus opinion, you had to choose to be an alarmist (mostly the left and dominant in the traditional media) or a denialist (mostly the right). That’s why Joe Biden is talking about a new lockdown — even though such a policy is unwarranted and futile.
But the interaction between a disinterested, implacable virus and politics as religion has been disastrous — first for the denialists, but increasingly for the alarmists.
As the coronavirus arrived in the United States, media and politics quickly bifurcated into two opposing camps: denialists who insisted the virus was no big deal and would burn itself out, and alarmists who considered it a modern Black Death. For months the alarmists held the upper hand as the virus spread seemingly unchecked with high death tolls in New York, and predictably overwhelming news coverage. The denialists looked like fools.
But the tide is turning against the alarmists.
Every day is better than the last. Improved treatments, greater understanding of the complexities and effects, better preventative interventions, and a clearer understanding of who the at-risk populations are. The virus itself may be mutating to a less lethal (but more contagious) form. If not, it is almost certainly not becoming more lethal. Even so, there are likely to be continued flareups. This overall change in fortune is not luck, it’s predicable. The medical, scientific and health care community have been working on treatments, procedures and vaccines for months.
Herd immunity is an increasing possibility. At a threshold of 70 percent, such immunity seems far away given just over 6 million confirmed cases in the U.S. But, given the high number of asymptomatic cases, the true number of cases has been estimated at 6 to 24 times higher. Using a midpoint of 15, 6 million confirmed cases implies 90 million Americans (28 percent of the population) have contracted the virus with an implied death rate of less than 0.3 percent. If herd immunity as low as 43 percent, then immunity is approaching and places like New York might nearly be there (238,000 confirmed cases, implying 3.57 million actual cases for 42.5 percent of the population).
Yet the legacy media remains resolutely alarmist, engaging in apocalyptic one-upmanship, and predicting death whenever they spot behavior they don’t like. This drumbeat, which coincidentally seems to always include attacks on President Trump, is a problem for Joe Biden.
A combination of legacy media “panic porn” and heightened concerns by the Democratic base (two likely interrelated variables), is pushing Biden toward extreme coronavirus rhetoric just as the pandemic is easing. Biden’s declaration in favor of a new lockdown (with a helpful “if needed” caveat) will be a problem if conditions continue to improve.
If Biden is stuck toeing the alarmist line, it will likely prove costly by Election Day.
While Democratic voters so detest Trump, they are highly unlikely to break with Biden, independent voters are much more likely to be up for grabs — and for them the coronavirus is fading as an issue. In the Aug. 18 YouGov poll, just 16 percent of independents are “very concerned” about the virus (down from 21 percent in late July), lower than Republicans (18 percent) and far lower than Democrats (45 percent). In total, 57 percent of independents are very or somewhat concerned (slightly down from 59 percent in late July) compared with 43 percent of Republicans and a far larger 86 percent of Democrats.
Democrats are also far gloomier about the coronavirus, with 60 percent thinking things will get worse and only 6 percent thinking things will get better. In contrast, 38 percent of independents expect worsening conditions and 21 percent believe the worst is over. Even though Biden has tried to maintain some connection to the political center and not be tethered to the far left, the unmitigated pessimism of his political base and the legacy media pose a major problem.
That is not to say that Trump has smooth sailing. He continued to have bad coronavirus numbers with public disapproval running 56 percent to 39 percent approval. The deficit with independents is a bit higher at 55 percent disapprove to 35 percent approve. Trump also has some of his worst issue approval levels among Republicans on this topic, but they still approve 83 percent to 15 percent.
But the American public generally only cares about results, and if the coronavirus abates through the fall, Trump will gain — even if the improvement is solely due to the natural progression of the virus and not through any agency by Trump. Biden still leads and could withstand an improving coronavirus situation given all the other problems in the country — but only if his so-called allies don’t drag him down.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, is a public affairs consultant who specialized in Pennsylvania judicial elections. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.