Citizenship question on census could shoot Republicans in foot

Most commentators assume that adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census will benefit the Republican Party. It is possible that the exact opposite may occur. Republicans may actually be shooting themselves in the foot. The assumption underlying all this is that the citizenship question may result in a significant undercount of Hispanics who may not want to cooperate with census takers because of a mistrust of how government will use the data being collected.

I agree that this is a likely result. However, since the census counts everyone regardless of citizenship status any significant undercount of Hispanics may well wind up biting Trump and the Republican Party in the posterior. Why do I say this? Let’s start with two large states that Trump won in the presidential election: Texas and Florida.

{mosads}These states have each gained 12 electoral votes in the period from 1980 to 2016. Texas had 26 electoral votes in 1980 and 38 electoral votes in 2016. Florida had 17 electoral votes in 1980 and 29 electoral votes in 2016. Early projections are that Texas would gain three to four more electoral votes as a result of the 2020 census and Florida would gain two more electoral votes.

Both states have large Hispanic populations, many of whom are not citizens, as some are here legally and some illegally. A significant undercount of Hispanics could cost the Republican Party electoral votes in both these states. Other Trump states with large Hispanic populations that may not gain projected additional electoral votes as the result of an undercount include Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

Of course, there is one big Democratic state that will suffer by a significant undercount. California had 45 electoral votes in 1980 and 55 electoral votes in 2016. However, California’s growth has stagnated in recent years and it may not gain electoral votes even with a full count.

Another result of an undercount is a loss of additional congressional seats and a loss of millions of dollars of federal funds tied to population figures. Electoral votes are awarded to states based on one for each representative and one for each senator in Congress.

So why did the Trump administration announce a decision that may harm its own political base? There are two prevalent theories. First, this is a vendetta directed at California, a state which Trump lost by a large margin and will lose millions of dollars of federal funds as a result of an undercount. Second, this is another in a long line of dog whistles to Trump’s anti-immigrant white base.

But where are the Republican governors of Texas and Florida whose states will get the shaft if this goes through, both in terms of loss of political power and loss of federal funds? They have been strangely silent. If I were the governor of one of those states I would be screaming bloody murder. Amazingly, two Texas Republican office holders, Sen. Ted Cruz and state attorney general Ken Paxton, have actually endorsed the citizenship question despite the harm it will cause their own state.

Don’t get me wrong. Adding a citizenship question to the census is a bad idea from a public policy standpoint, even if it winds up hurting my political opponents. There must be Republicans who understand that this is a losing strategy for their own party. Politics can be a very strange business sometimes. Are the Republicans so blinded by loyalty to Trump that they can’t do simple math?

Martin Frost represented the 24th district of Texas in Congress as a Democrat from 1979 to 2005. He served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 1995 to 1999.