From semiconductors to quantum computing: What the US can learn from past oversight

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has set its sights on quantum computing as a crucial technology for China to dominate by 2049, echoing a familiar tune for those with firsthand experience in the semiconductor industry. The U.S. needs a comprehensive strategy and substantially increased funding to secure victory in the quantum race.

The implications of China’s pursuit to dominate the quantum space go beyond economic and social impacts. If the CCP secures access to a fault-tolerant quantum computer ahead of the United States, we could see mass decryption of sensitive government data and the illicit acquisition of industry trade secrets, bestowing Chinese enterprises with an unprecedented competitive advantage. In addition, quantum computing capabilities would enable the Chinese military to advance materials for next-generation weapons, precisely model satellite movements for optimized coverage, and significantly enhance surveillance capabilities against adversaries. Chinese quantum computing is an existential threat to our economic competitiveness and national security. The United States cannot afford a replay of past oversights.

Having spent two decades as an executive at Intel, I recall the CCP’s declaration of semiconductor design and manufacturing as a national priority in its 12th five-year plan in 2014. China wasted no time, funneling significant capital into semiconductor research and development while fostering research collaborations at prestigious universities, incentivizing partnerships between local companies and global tech giants, and generously subsidizing their state-owned semiconductor champion, SMIC.

Over the next few years, I watched U.S. semiconductor companies grapple with the dual challenge of maintaining access to the lucrative Chinese market while safeguarding their intellectual property. The CCP mandated joint ventures with Chinese entities, seeking to extract design information, operational expertise, and profits. Only in 2022, with the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act, did the U.S. government respond to China’s tightening grip on the global semiconductor supply chain, committing over $50 billion to domestic semiconductor research and production.

It is impossible to ignore the potential cost savings and national security risks that the United States could have avoided if it had acted in 2014 or earlier instead of allowing China to advance toward chip supply dominance.

To ensure history does not repeat itself and to reach the quantum finish line first, Congress must reauthorize the National Quantum Initiative, allocate additional funds for collaborative quantum research involving industry, government, and academia, and maintain equal attention on all promising technologies.

Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize nearly every industry and sector, from logistics and health care to finance and engineering. Imagine a global parcel service company that can make a worldwide delivery plan for a given day much quicker —delivering millions of packages via thousands of trains, planes, and trucks calibrated to maximize efficiency and find the best of literally billions of options. Or imagine a pharmacology lab sorting through thousands of options to create new combinations of compounds to treat heart disease, shortening the drug development process. This is the future that awaits us when quantum computing reaches its zenith.

The CCP has poured approximately $15 billion into China’s quantum endeavors, a sum nearly eight times the $1.9 billion in federal funding from the U.S. Additionally, Chinese investments in quantum research span a range of technologies, spreading resources across different approaches, increasing the chances of achieving a fault-tolerant quantum computer. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the focus leans heavily towards established methods like superconductors, largely overlooking promising, newer approaches like neutral atoms or photonic technology, which have the potential to surpass those methods and deliver dependable quantum computing within the next decade.

President Biden’s recent executive order banning further U.S. investment in Chinese quantum computing is a good start to ensure U.S. dollars do not further support China in this race. With quantum being such a transformational technology with potentially devastating national security consequences, it only makes sense that the U.S. does not enable its principal strategic rival. But the U.S. needs to act quickly in developing a to win the quantum race.

It took nearly a decade for the U.S. government to course correct on semiconductors, and even with the CHIPS and Science Act, that race is by no means over. Let us not make the same mistakes with the race to a fault-tolerant quantum computer. Whoever gets there first wins the future. 

Rob Hays is CEO of Atom Computing.