Reid not counted out

There has been rampant speculation about who will succeed Sen. Harry Reid (Nev.) as the upper chamber’s top Democrat — Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.) or Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.).

The handicapping has a core problem, however, and that is that it rather assumes Reid will lose in his bid for a fifth term this fall. 

{mosads}Many people viewed Sen. Scott Brown’s (R-Mass.) stunning win in January as the final nail in Reid’s coffin.

But Reid has rebounded. A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that he is trailing Republican Sue Lowden by only three percentage points. Reid is leading Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle by three points and trailing Danny Tarkanian, another GOP candidate, by one.

Here are some more telling numbers: Reid has more than $9 million cash while Lowden, Angle and Tarkanian all have less than $300,000, according to recent filings with the Federal Election Commission.

The Republican primary is next Tuesday and the GOP nominee will have next to nothing in his/her campaign account and will be bloodied from the various attacks he or she has sustained over the last several months.

Reid, a former fighter, is not going to win this election easily. His approval ratings have been low this entire cycle, and they are not going to skyrocket amid the nation’s anti-incumbent mood. 

But they’re also unlikely to plummet. Reid played a major role in killing the Yucca Mountain project and has shown he knows how to bring federal dollars to Nevada.

Unlike his retiring colleague, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), Reid is used to close elections. In 1986, he attracted 50 percent of the vote to get elected to the Senate for the first time. Six years later, he got 51 percent and in 1998, he secured only 48 percent, according to the Almanac of American Politics.

Reid’s campaign will also throw elbows against the Republican primary winner. Polls show that Lowden or Angle will win the right to take on Reid, but the bottom line is that neither is viewed as a top-notch candidate.

Can the Republicans win this seat? Absolutely. Over the years, Reid has made controversial statements that could come back to haunt him. Republicans will also likely go after Reid as an insider, which he is.

But make no mistake, taking Reid out will be difficult.