Sotomayor, health, financial regulation

There are many big-ticket items on the congressional calendar this week, but none bigger than the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

President Obama nominated Sotomayor on May 26 and since then, Democrats have enjoyed the upper hand as Republicans have grappled with the question of whether to oppose her.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) acknowledged which way the political winds are blowing during Monday’s opening statements in the Judiciary Committee, saying, “Unless you have a complete meltdown, you’re going to be confirmed.”

{mosads}Indeed, the question is not whether Sotomayor will be confirmed, but how many votes she will get on the Senate floor.

Chief Justice John Roberts received the votes of 22 senators who caucused with the Democratic Party, and 22 against. When he was in the Senate, Obama reportedly considered voting for Roberts, but was advised that such a vote could hurt him if he ran for president. Obama subsequently voted against Roberts.

Justice Samuel Alito received the backing of four Democrats: Sens. Robert Byrd (W.Va.), Kent Conrad (N.D.), Tim Johnson (S.D.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.). All four of these senators also approved of the Roberts nomination.

How many Republican votes will Sotomayor attract? Regardless of the final number, it is clear the GOP will not be as unified as Democrats were against Alito. It appears more likely that it will be a Roberts-like vote tally, with about half of Republicans rejecting her and half supporting her.

Separately, Obama’s effort to reform the healthcare system faces a crucial week as both chambers move forward on separate proposals. The House is seeking to tax the wealthy to help pay for its bill, but Senate Democrats are not embracing that idea.

“I think we are going to have a different approach,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on ABC’s “This Week.”

There is growing skepticism that the Senate will be able to advance its healthcare plan beyond the committee level before the August recess, but Conrad says he is not concerned.

{mosads}“There really is plenty of time,” Conrad said. “Congress is going to be in session until Christmas Eve.”

The House and Senate are also moving forward on Obama’s plan to set up a new consumer agency for the financial sector, which is opposed by many industry groups.

Passing the required legislation to set up this new agency will be a heavy lift for Obama and congressional Democrats. Politically, they will need to persuade at least a few major players in the financial industry to embrace the idea or it will likely not get to the president’s desk during the 111th Congress.