N.Y. state of mind

It is a fair bet that by Election Day 2010, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) will have faced a threatening challenge from neither the Republican Party nor her own.

President Obama’s decision last week to call Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) and persuade him not to mount a primary insurgency suggests the strong current against which any challenger would have to swim.

It was not always so — far from it.

When, in January, New York Gov. David Paterson (D) appointed Gillibrand to the seat left vacant by Hillary Rodham Clinton’s departure for the State Department, many observers were surprised and annoyed by the choice. It seemed precipitate after Paterson’s long will-he-or-won’t-he agonizing over whether to choose Caroline Kennedy.

Gillibrand seemed vulnerable, and a bipartisan group of New York politicians licked their chops at the thought of ousting her in 2010. On the Republican side was, and still is, Rep. Pete King, and among the Democrats were Reps. Israel, Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney.

There is nothing, however, so potent as incumbency in electoral politics; as in the law, possession is nine-tenths of what counts.

And Gillibrand quickly gained heavyweight support. Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), a member of the Senate Democratic leadership and the spectacularly successful immediate past chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, instantly embraced his new junior colleague.

That instantly made her a more daunting opponent, at least for other Democrats. And now Obama’s unusual intervention, requested by Schumer and his successor, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), gives Gillibrand the heaviest of heavyweight supporters.

Israel opted to stay in the House, and although McCarthy and Maloney can say they won’t be intimidated, that seems more like bravado than a real indication of willingness to take on such a challenge.

Besides, Gillibrand has also reversed herself on guns, supporting tighter restrictions and so giving herself greater statewide appeal than she needed when she represented a conservative district.

Her possible challengers from the House say they will watch what Gillibrand does in office before making their decisions. What she has done is adjust her policy positions to appeal to a more left-wing electorate, and gather the backing of her party’s most senior officers.

A challenge is not out of the question, of course. But a really serious one? That seems unlikely at this point. It will depend on broader questions, such as the condition and trajectory of the economy in coming months, and which way the midterm wave is building.

But as things stand, it will not be a risk-averse House incumbent who decides to seek elevation to the upper chamber from the Empire State.