Star quality

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack’s (D) decision to bow out of the presidential race was both shocking and unsurprising at the same time.

It was shocking because he had many attributes that would normally make for a plausible bid and because he made his decision to proceed no further at a time when traditionally some candidates are still months away from starting their campaigns. But the fact that he finished before he really began was unsurprising because the 2008 cycle has quickly become about domination by a few rather than genuine competition among many.

There is any number of supposed contenders in this notionally open cycle, but the truth is that they are really improbables rather than possibles. Some recognized this and have already dropped out; notable among them are Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.). Some remain, including (on the Democratic side) Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.), New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Sen. Joseph Biden (Del.), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) and former Sen. Mike Gravel (Alaska).

But does anyone really think these men are contenders? They may be worthy, smart, likable and several other impressive things, yet they are (at least for now) treated as presidential hopefuls more as a courtesy than as the corollary of serious political analysis. One of them might suddenly get significant momentum; the point is not that this would be impossible but that it would be a surprise. Already, 20 months before people cast their votes, the window of opportunity is closing fast. It is the same on the Republican side.

But let us stick with the Democrats, for the sake of argument. Here, the big shots are Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), Barack Obama (Ill.) and, if one is very generous (probably to a fault), former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). Clinton and Obama have established the sort of frontrunner status that inclines commentators to suggest that the rest are nowhere. Bayh, Kerry and then Vilsack recognized this and decided to save themselves the trouble of running.

What is it that has conferred such outsized leads on two or three candidates so early? Is it charisma? Not quite. Obama has it, but Clinton is not a natural. Is it money or the ability to raise money? Again, not quite, although cash is king, Clinton is a money machine, and Obama is getting good at it too.

No, the essential quality is star status. In an election that is already completely nationalized, it is star status that counts. Clinton and Obama have it. Vilsack and others cannot even command their own states. We’re already in a vortex; frontrunners have star power, which makes them frontrunners, which gives them star power, and so on ad infinitum.

Another star has just risen above the horizon. Former Vice President Al Gore carried off an Oscar at the Academy Awards on Sunday, he’s been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, he was a prominent opponent of the Iraq war from the start so he doesn’t have to make excuses now to the party base, and he owns the environmentalist agenda. If he jumped into the race — and it is a big if — the money would follow him and so would the earned media.

What is not yet apparent is whether he has the desire.