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Buried for now – but not dead

by The Hill Editors - 06/29/07 6:50 PM ET

The rollercoaster ride of immigration reform ended yesterday when a motion to invoke cloture fell 14 votes short of the 60 it needed.

On the floor after the vote, Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) said, “It is clear we are not going to complete our work on immigration.”

The vote signaled a stunning defeat for proponents of the measure — a diverse group of members including Sens. Kennedy, John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Mel Martinez (R-Fla.).

But these members are likely to be serving in public office beyond the next 18 months, and thus they will probably get another crack at passing an immigration measure. President Bush will not.

With Social Security and tax reform torpedoed in the last Congress, Bush spent what is left of his political capital to push immigration reform.

Why did it fail?

There are many reasons to pick from, such as a lack of motivation from some Democrats on the Hill and how the administration’s sway with GOP members has plummeted since the last election.

Yet the overarching reason why the legislation crashed and burned is that the bases of both parties did not like it. The AFL-CIO’s opposition to the bill was a significant blow, and the fervent opposition from the conservatives was crippling.

Lawmaking is tough business, and it can get impossibly tough if both the left and the right are not on your side.

Many compromises were made throughout the on-again, off-again negotiations, but they weren’t enough.

Hours before the cloture vote, experts closely tracking this debate expected the roll call to be close to the 60 threshold needed to cut off debate. It ended up being a rout, however, as the fickle political winds, which had shifted in favor of the measure earlier this week, turned dramatically against it yesterday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) voted yes. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) voted no. Minority Whip Trent Lott (R-Miss.) voted yes.

The vote split freshman members: Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) voted no, while Sens. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) supported cloture.

There is no doubt that debate on this issue will continue. But more of it will be heard on the campaign trail than on the floors of the Senate and House.