Looking toward ’09

Speaking at a breakfast on Thursday hosted by this newspaper, Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.), chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, was asked whether it is realistic to expect his bill overhauling the nation’s railways to pass during this Congress.

“Yes, it is realistic that this can become law,” he replied, but added, “if not in the context of the present administration, in a subsequent administration.”

The first part of what he said was optimistic. Opponents of his bill, which aims to undo what he calls the “twin duopolies” of the nation’s rail network, tag the legislation as “re-regulation.” It is far less likely to be signed into law by President Bush than by a Democratic successor.

Oberstar’s comment reveals the way many Democrats are thinking these days; they are looking toward January 2009, when, they believe, they will have bigger majorities in both chambers of Congress and a colleague rather than an opponent at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

In private, Democratic lawmakers say they do not expect to get much done this Congress and are waiting for what they hope and increasingly expect will be a triumphant night at the polls in November next year.

It has been obvious that several Iraq votes in recent months have been passed not because there is a real expectation that they will become law but because they show where lawmakers stand. It is less obvious, but nevertheless the case, that much other legislation, not just on Iraq, is now being introduced primarily to put down markers of intent.

If Democrats do not have sufficient votes to override a presidential veto of legislation expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (which Republican voters apparently favor by a 2-to-1 margin), then they certainly don’t have the votes to dictate such things as fiscal and industrial policy to the White House.

Which is why, as we mentioned in this space yesterday, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel’s (D-N.Y.) big, redistributive tax bill is unlikely to go far during this Congress. Like bills laying down timetables for American withdrawal from Iraq, and Oberstar’s restructuring of the rail industry, it is mostly a marker.

Naturally, Democrats blame Republicans for obstructing their legislative efforts; Oberstar said on Thursday that the GOP was better at this than his own party. So Democratic hopes focused on the horizon 15 months from here. They expect to be able to do a whole lot more legislating in January 2009 than they are doing now.