Not resonating

Losing ground in the polls, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has intensified his criticism of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in recent months.

He has suggested that Clinton is too polarizing to change the culture of Washington and that she is too cozy with special interests. Another chief plank of Obama’s campaign is that he opposed the Iraq war and Clinton voted for it.

{mosads}But although Obama has recently re-emphasized his differences with Clinton over Iraq, it has not translated into political momentum.

There is no doubt that many on the left are furious with Clinton’s 2002 vote and her refusal to apologize for it. But many Democrats, both on and off Capitol Hill, do not view her decision on Iraq as a litmus test.
Twenty-one Democrats in the Senate voted against the war; none of them are running for president this year. In the lower chamber, 126 Democrats voted no.

Of those who still hold seats in Congress, 28 (24 House, four Senate) lawmakers support Clinton for the presidency, eight of them from New York. Obama has attracted 11 (10 House, one Senate) such lawmaker endorsements, seven from Illinois members.

Clinton has also secured more endorsements than Obama — 22 to 11 — from the Out of Iraq Caucus, which has kept House leadership on edge throughout this year. Take out the New York and Illinois backers for Clinton and Obama respectively, and Clinton leads 13-6.

In the spring, many political insiders were extremely impressed that Obama could go head to head with Clinton on fundraising. And they were also wowed by the crowds he attracted and how he connected with them.

But after the initial excitement died down, there were questions about whether Obama’s second act would be as good as his first. Clinton’s political trajectory has been more steady than Obama’s rollercoaster ride.

Outside of the Norman Hsu fiasco, Clinton has avoided mistakes and has deftly dodged politically touchy questions without appearing to dodge them.

Obama’s second act has not been as compelling as his first, and he needs a strong finish to catch Clinton. His Iraq war message is not resonating as much as it was earlier this year, and he needs some new material or he is likely to slow down on his way to the finish line. Arguably, he must win Iowa to give himself a chance at the nomination; yet Clinton has started to put daylight between them in the Hawkeye State while dominating the polls in New Hampshire.

Democrats will not forget Clinton’s vote on the war, though many have clearly forgiven her enough to back her candidacy.