The dubious value of the “O” Factor

The talk out on the presidential campaign trail over the past few weeks is all about one thing: the ‘O’ Factor. Everybody is trying to figure out whether Oprah Winfrey’s controversial decision to support Barack Obama will help the toothsome Illinois senator attain the presidency. And, frankly, some even wonder whether endorsing political candidates is good for the talk show host herself.

Some pundits believe that Oprah’s rallies in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire will not only convert the 65,000-plus attendees into Obama voters, but perhaps persuade another 65,000 more to push the Barack button. Other political experts are saying that the good will Obama will get from the Oprah tour will help him raise a few bucks, but won’t bring droves of new voters to the polls. Still others, alluding to previous celebrity endorsements of presidential candidates, such as Bruce Springsteen’s public campaign for John Kerry in 2004, argue that celebrity endorsements like Oprah’s are not just completely worthless but may actually cause more harm than good for the candidate.

One can turn to the polling data and try to crunch the numbers to figure out the value of the ‘O’ Factor. But even that is inconclusive. A new CBS/New York Times national poll released last week revealed that only 1 percent of people were more likely to vote for Barack Obama because of Oprah’s support. Eighty percent of those polled said the Oprah factor made no difference for Obama’s chances, and 14 percent even said she made them less likely to vote for him.

Furthermore, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in September showed that celebrity endorsements in general had little impact on voters. Three-fourths of the respondents said the endorsements of Tiger Woods, Jay Leno, Toby Keith, Angelina Jolie, Jon Stewart, Donald Trump and others would make “no difference” in influencing their vote, the poll found.
But here’s the strange thing: Obama’s poll numbers in South Carolina rose significantly after Oprah’s visit, at least according to an InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll taken over the weekend. InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery said it’s obvious that Obama’s numbers rose because of Winfrey’s visit.

“Obama’s support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clinton’s dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in black voters towards Obama,” Towery said in a statement. “However, Obama’s white vote has not moved. Clearly the Oprah Winfrey visit to the state moved African-American voters.”

Whether or not these weekend polls and national surveys have any reliable data is difficult to gauge. One can argue the significance of the ‘O’ Factor forever, but the fact is that Oprah is out there stumping, taking time off from her regular schedule to campaign for a presidential candidate. And people are listening. They are soaking up her words, attending her rallies, and reading her quotes. Oprah has it all, from money and fame to likeability and trust. Her endorsement might just make the difference in this campaign, but we’ll never really know — even if Obama ends up becoming the next president of the United States.

More importantly than the value of the ‘O’ Factor, and something that is rarely talked about, is the issue of endorsements overall. Why do Americans trust the words of a third party when they don’t know them, didn’t care for them before and will never truly know the reliability of these endorsers? Why do we allow people like Oprah to waive a magic wand and make (or even try to make) someone president?  Embracing Oprah’s endorsements for books, food and movies is understandable, but the endorsement of a presidential candidate is a different matter. Oprah is way out of her league if she thinks she can enter the political arena as a power broker.

Whether or not Oprah really believes that Sen. Obama is the person to lead this country in the future is irrelevant. Her beliefs are hers to hold, but her qualifications to recommend to others who they should vote for are dubious at best. I would find it shocking if most people in America would allow anyone to decide for them one of the most important decisions they can make. Have we become so complacent, lazy and disinterested that we won’t take the time and effort to get to know who these presidential candidates really are and what they stand for?

This is not Tupperware or CDs we’re buying here. Will I allow Oprah or any other celebrity to influence my choice of presidential candidate? I don’t think so. But stay tuned to the New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina primaries. The proof of Oprah’s influence will finally be revealed. I can’t wait to see whether or not Oprah can make someone president.

Williams is a regular contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog.