Lieberman’s future

Big events reshape political landscapes long-term, and events don’t come bigger than war. The Iraq war is probably the single most powerful force (even though it is not the only force) that has altered voter sympathies so as to boost Democratic electoral prospects.

It did so in 2006, and even though anti-war ardor has waned in the past year, public opinion remains solidly opposed to the conflict. The war has changed the political fortunes of not only the parties but also of the lawmakers within them — none more than those of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

It is extraordinary to recall that he was the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee eight years ago.

Today he is one of the most prominent supporters of the Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), and is regarded as an outcast among Democratic grassroots supporters.

His position relative to the Democratic Conference in the Senate is more ambivalent but increasingly strained. He recently felt it necessary, for example, to leave a caucus luncheon when talk turned to the presidential election battle and the party’s efforts to defeat McCain.

Such awkward circumstances are played by ear, but others are scripted. One of the latter, surely, is Lieberman’s probable ouster next Congress as chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) studiously defends Lieberman and expresses gratitude for his colleague’s crucial support on all policy issues other than Iraq. Last week, after a Democratic victory, Reid noted, “We had one of the most crucial votes that we’ve had in a long time to preserve the integrity of Medicare. I got 60 votes on that because Joe Lieberman walked up there and cast his vote. Anytime we have a problem here, with the exception of Iraq, Joe Lieberman’s with us.”

But Reid does not talk about the future, and knows as everyone else does that his 51-49 majority will be comfortably bigger in 2009. A Lieberman vote then will not have the cachet of a Lieberman vote now.

Given this and the Democratic groundswell against him, the Connecticut senator will not bask in congressional deference and seems highly unlikely to retain his panel chairmanship.

Thus, a lawmaker once referred to as “the conscience of the Senate,” widely respected and elevated by his party to its presidential ticket, will probably find himself in the wilderness soon. He would certainly find it difficult, if a vote were held in Connecticut today, to retain his seat.

Of course, if McCain takes the White House, it is probable that Lieberman will find he is offered a different seat, where he would run something bigger than a Senate committee.