Counting SCHIP votes

It’s coming back. The long-stalled State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill that was vetoed by President Bush is likely to be back on the House floor in the fall.

The SCHIP story got a bit stale as the parties bickered about it throughout much of 2007. But in the wake of congressional Republicans abandoning President Bush on several high-profile issues, SCHIP is again a hot topic on Capitol Hill.

In June, the White House threatened to veto another healthcare bill, the Medicare physician payment legislation. When the House took up the measure, most observers thought it would fall short of the two-thirds majority it needed. But it attracted an astounding 355 votes, as 129 House Republicans defied their president.

That House roll call led to the emotional Senate vote when Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) returned to the upper chamber in the middle of treatment for cancer to help the Medicare bill reach the necessary votes for passage.

The Medicare bill and the SCHIP measure are very different pieces of legislation. But they are both high-profile, election-year healthcare bills.

If every senator shows, the Senate already has the votes to override Bush on SCHIP.

In the House, Democratic leaders need about a dozen more votes, give or take a few because rarely do all 435 House members make every vote.

In January, 42 House Republicans voted for the override of Bush’s veto on SCHIP. Since then, the political climate has soured for the GOP, and there are three Democrats who replaced Republicans in special elections this year. It’s also fair to assume that more Republicans will vote for SCHIP in September.

But how many and who?

Certainly not many of the 59 GOP members who backed Bush on the Medicare bill. Of them, only Rep. Rick Renzi (Ariz.) voted for the SCHIP bill.

Some Republicans who voted against the SCHIP veto override in January are being targeted by Democrats this cycle, including Reps. Steve Chabot (Ohio), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Fla.), Thelma Drake (Va.), Tom Feeney (Fla.), Sam Graves (Mo.), Robin Hayes (N.C.), Joe Knollenberg (Mich.), Randy Kuhl (N.Y.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.) and Tim Walberg (Mich.).

There could be a few vote-changers among the Republicans who are getting nervous about their reelection chances. This is not to suggest there aren’t valid criticisms of the SCHIP legislation, but the reality is that it is a politically popular bill.

Unless the political winds shift, Democrats are going to get their SCHIP bill into law. It could be this year, or it could be next year — maybe the first bill signed by President Obama or the first vetoed by President McCain, and passed on an override. (McCain would likely be dealing with a dozen or so more House Democrats.)

Democrats have no doubt played some politics with SCHIP. But they are in the driver’s seat.