Leader of the House

When Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) became Speaker following the 2006 elections, there were many skeptics.
Republicans were hopeful they could quickly regain their majority, noting that 61 House Democrats would have to run in districts that President Bush won in 2004.

But a year and a half later, the question is not when Republicans will have the Speaker’s gavel again;, it’s how large the Democratic majority will grow in the coming years.

Pelosi has a short- and long-term political plan. In 2008, the effort is aimed at maximizing the public’s distaste for the Republican Party and picking up a significant number of seats, though probably not as many as the 30 that Democrats snared two years ago.

But, for argument’s sake, let’s say Democrats pick up a net of 15 seats this fall. That would give them 251 seats, with Republicans controlling 184.

If Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is the next commander in chief, Democrats would historically be favored to grow their majority in the midterms.

Should Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) win the White House, Democrats would likely be on the defensive in 2010. But it would take a wave bigger than 2006 and a bit smaller than 1994 for Republicans to gain control of the lower chamber for the 112th Congress.

By that time, Democrats will be playing a major role in the redistricting process.

When Republicans controlled the House, they talked about a permanent majority. There is, of course, no such thing. It is hard to deny, however, that the short-, medium- and perhaps long-term outlook for House Democrats is quite sunny.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has stressed that he and his colleagues have to earn the majority back. But majorities, for the most part, are lost, not won.

House Democrats, along with President Clinton, got hammered for trying to pass healthcare reform in the early 1990s, as well as the gun control crime bill. Then they lost control of Congress.

In 2005 and 2006, President Bush and congressional Republicans misread the political winds, the public’s mood on the Iraq war soured and ethical controversies plagued the GOP. And Republicans lost their majority.

Pelosi has put her majority on a strong footing. She has also exhibited an enormous amount of control of the House. The big X factor when she became Speaker was how she was going to handle the powerful committee chairmen, some of whom had been in Congress long before she started her career on Capitol Hill in 1987.

That question has been answered. Pelosi will defer at times to the so-called “old bulls,” but they also know she is running the House.