Oil on the floor

The Republican oil price debate/protest/publicity stunt on the floor of the House is one of those political events that acquires a life of its own and forces politicians to calculate carefully and often where the balance of advantage lies. As each hour and day go by, Republicans and Democrats will try to figure out whether they or their opponents will blink first.

The protest began when Reps. Tom Price (R-Ga.) and Mike Pence (R-Ind.) rebelled against Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) decision to shutter the House for August without a vote on offshore drilling for energy.

As their debate caught on, as GOP lawmakers returned from the airport to join in, as Republican staffers filled the seats, and as members of the public came to watch legislators in the darkened chamber refuse to abandon an issue of anxious interest to millions, Republicans realized more and more that they are winning the debate.

Democrats ended the session on a roll, with one piece of legislation after another pushed through and either receiving the president’s signature or else brushing aside his objections. Yet, on what may be the biggest election issue, energy costs, Republicans have the upper hand.

There may be many compelling reasons why drilling is a sham rather than a real solution, as Democrats say it is. But most adults have at least a fugitive understanding that extra supply lowers unit costs, so they want Congress to demolish barriers that block exploration of American reserves.

Last week it was mostly Democrats in conservative districts who were antsy about the party’s opposition to offshore drilling, but now both Pelosi and presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) are apparently finessing the issue. They would not be doing so if they did not see that they are vulnerable to the accusation that they are not doing enough to relieve public pain.

Pence says the House floor revolt will continue at least through this week. But as it goes on, the stakes rise for both sides. If Republicans cave and leave town without having forced Democrats to come back and vote, if they head to the airport saying, “We did our best, but it didn’t work,” they could look weak and unimpressive. Similarly, if Pelosi backs down and the House reconvenes to vote on the issue, the minority party will have seized the agenda.

It is a tough position for both parties. The GOP appears to have the bit between its teeth, but it is galloping over unfamiliar ground, and horses with the bit between their teeth are hard to control.