Falling oil

Congress is finally poised to consider energy legislation intended to address high gas prices — just as the price of a barrel of oil is poised to drop under $100.

The fall in prices must be somewhat unsettling to Republicans looking for a political break. The party has had a great ride pushing the Democrats into holding votes on legislation allowing oil and gas companies to drill off the coast.

Now, just as Congress seems ready to really debate the issue, oil and gas prices are dropping, which could take the heat off Congress. It won’t be clear until November whether gas prices remain the kind of irritant that will lead Americans to punish either party at the ballot.

Make no mistake, the mere fact that Congress is set to consider a drilling bill is a victory for House Republicans.

Before the summer, few would have anticipated that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) would allow a vote on offshore drilling, given the opposition of environmental groups allied with Democrats.

Of course, the vote will come with some caveats.

The legislation Pelosi announced Wednesday would only allow drilling 50 to 100 miles off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, not nearly close enough for many proponents of offshore drilling. It would also require oil companies to drill on land they are leasing from the federal government quickly or else forfeit those leases, a priority for Democratic leaders.

At least one high hurdle remains. The bill will not allow states to earn royalties from drilling off their coasts, and yet requires their approval before drilling can begin. This has raised the rather obvious objection that states will not agree to allow drilling if they have no financial incentive.

This obstacle may be overcome before votes are actually held. Then the question will be whether the package will have enough support for passage.

If it does not, few could predict with certainty how voters will react given the short-term trend toward lower prices.

In July, weekly gas prices topped out at an average of $4.11 per gallon, according to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration. On Sept. 8, it reported weekly gas prices falling to $3.65. The lowest price for a gallon of gas in Virginia on Thursday morning was $3.32 per gallon, according to Gasbuddy.com.

The price of a barrel of oil had fallen 36 cents, to $102.22, as of midday Thursday, with some analysts predicting a further drop this fall.

With the Labor Day weekend in the rear-view mirror, Americans are no longer planning for summer trips. But it’s not yet winter in the Northeast and industrial Midwest, meaning the price of heating oil isn’t yet a shock for most.

Even if Americans are ready to punish their elected representatives in the polling booths, it’s unclear who will suffer the most — the Democratic Congress or members of President Bush’s party.

High gas prices are often blamed on the White House. Ask Jimmy Carter. But also remember that Democrats controlled the House and Senate in 1980 and lost plenty of seats in that election.