CBO courage

Robert Sunshine is not a household name, even in the homes of political junkies. But what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did earlier this week, under Sunshine’s guidance, got the attention of the new White House and leadership lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

Sunshine was named acting director of the CBO after Peter Orszag left the nonpartisan agency to join the Obama administration as its budget director.

CBO is tasked with being the official scorekeeper of legislation. That is one tough job. Congress is the CBO’s only client, but it must give nonpartisan cost estimates to members. When lawmakers believe the CBO has given them an inflated price tag, they can do a number of things: They can yell at CBO privately, scold publicly and/or line up other economists who agree with them to push CBO to change its estimate.

This criticism and pressure is all one-way. CBO cannot fire back when lawmakers attack.

So when CBO issued its preliminary score of the economic stimulus package to Congress on Jan. 15, Sunshine knew he was going to darken the moods of Democratic leaders. The CBO analysis found that the stimulus bill would not be as stimulative as Democrats said.

As congressional Republicans touted the CBO findings, House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-Wis.) called them “off the wall” while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) also blasted the agency’s report.

Orszag, who just a few weeks ago worked with Sunshine, quickly sent a letter to Congress stating that the CBO analysis “did not assess the overall package.”

This newspaper will not delve into whether CBO is right or wrong. But what Sunshine did took courage. He has been with CBO almost from its inception and clearly knows that his job is not always to please his client.

While CBO directors must be nonpartisan, the majority party in Congress picks them.

A few days after the CBO estimate of the economic stimulus package was sent to Capitol Hill, Democratic leaders officially approved a new director to lead CBO. Democrats and Republicans have hailed the appointment of Douglas Elmendorf, announced late last month. Sunshine will stay on as CBO’s deputy director.

Elmendorf, a former senior fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution, will be under the fiscal gun on a range of issues.

It would not be surprising if Elmendorf has already been lobbied to change CBO’s cost estimate policies on healthcare. Lawmakers have been frustrated that CBO does not recognize more savings from preventative health measures. With the deficit soaring and members desperately seeking savings to help finance a major healthcare bill, Elmendorf will need to deliver cost estimates that are based on nonpartisan judgments and be ready to deliver analyses that Congress doesn’t want to hear.