Election predictions

Michael Steele raised a few eyebrows on Monday night when he said he
doesn’t think Republicans will win back the House this year.

Pressed by Sean Hannity on Fox News Channel, the Republican National Committee chairman initially responded, “Not this year.” He then backtracked a bit, saying it was too early to tell how many seats House Republicans will pick up.

{mosads}With 60 senators in the Democratic Conference, most of the political drama of 2010 lies in the House.

Without a doubt, the White House is concerned that Democrats could lose the Senate seats once occupied by President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, but the administration knows that it will be working with a Democratic-led Senate next year.

It’s not so certain in the House, though some analysts believe Democrats will retain their majority, losing between a dozen and 20 seats.

In September, Biden said if Republicans succeed in winning back the House in 2010, it would be the “end of the road” for the White House’s agenda.

Of course, the election is a long way off. If the unemployment rate drops and the economy improves, no one will be discussing the possibility of a Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).

But for now, the possibility of a takeover is being discussed. So much, in fact, that when Steele expressed his doubts, Democrats pounced.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Tuesday stated, “If the [National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)] hasn’t convinced the Republican National Committee chairman they can win, it’s no wonder that Tea Party activists, Republican small donors and Republican House members are not confident and have failed to invest in the NRCC.”

Meanwhile, the NRCC on Tuesday noted that a columnist for the left-leaning Huffington Post conceded that the GOP has an “outside chance” of winning back the majority.

Making predictions about an election is tricky. In 2004, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) guaranteed that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) would win the White House.

{mosads}In October 2006, President George W. Bush said that he believed “we’ll continue to control the House and Senate.”

Predicting bad things for your party in an election can demoralize the base and hurt fundraising efforts. On the other hand, making predictions that prove to be wrong are damaging because the politician can be deemed out of touch with the mood of the country.

There will be many predictions between now and November. And while there are so many uncertainties, one thing is clear: The election year has begun, and it will dominate the discussion on Capitol Hill for the next 10 months.