The surviving centrists

Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) said earlier this month that in the next Congress, he “will probably have the most influence” he has ever had.

He may be right. And he’s not alone.

Conservative Democrats in the lower chamber are likely to have more of a voice next year if, as expected, Republicans do well at the polls in November. But in order to bask in that power, these Democrats will have to withstand what is shaping up to be a red wave this fall.

House members on the left and right usually have little to fear every other fall, with most easily winning their general elections. (The thing they have to fear is a primary challenge.)

When waves come, they usually wipe out the members in the middle, in the districts that are up for grabs.

House Democrats picked up 30 seats in 2006 and 24 in the 2008 cycle. After Republican Scott Brown’s win last week, there is intensifying speculation that the lower chamber will flip. Intrade.com, the prediction market, puts the chances of Democrats retaining the House at 56 percent. (It was 10 points higher before Brown won.)

 Democrats have huge money advantages over their House Republican counterparts, and in order for the GOP to grab control of the lower chamber, it will need to pick up about 40 seats — significantly bigger than the Democrats’ wins in each of the last two cycles. What’s more likely is that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) “strong majority” will be weaker after the elections. 

Assuming Pelosi still enjoys the title of Speaker next year, she will have to lead differently from how she has in the 111th Congress. She will need to convince her centrist members to get on board with her agenda, or perhaps they will need to persuade her to pursue their legislative priorities. 

Pelosi knew that she was going to play defense this cycle. Looking at historical trends, she knew that some lawmakers who rode the 2006 and 2008 waves were probably headed back out in 2010. She will certainly fight to keep them all, but all will not be coming back in a year’s time.

Democrats are reading the tea leaves. Rep. Parker Griffith (Ala.) left the party to become a Republican. Reps. Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) and Marion Berry (D-Ark.) recently announced their retirements. 

Other conservative Democrats, including Reps. Harry Teague (N.M.), Frank Kratovil (Md.) and Baron Hill (Ind.), will be in campaign slugfests this year. 

If they and others like them fend off their respective challengers, they’ll have more of a say at the policymaking table in 2011.