Campaign answers

The 2010 midterm elections are fascinating because there are so many unanswered questions about what will happen this November.

Will the Tea Party be a strong force, or is it overrated? Will the Democratic base stay home upset that the president has not met its expectations? Will the money advantage Democrats have help them limit their losses? Should Republican incumbents be worried about the anti-Washington fervor?

{mosads}Sen. Scott Brown’s (R-Mass.) win in January was a key indicator that Democrats have the winds at their faces. But it also was incorrectly seen as the death knell to healthcare reform. 

More clues to the midterm election storyline will appear in the coming weeks with special elections in the House and a handful of bruising primary contests.

House Republicans need a bigger wave than the Democrats rode in 2006 and 2008 in order to take back control of the chamber. But if they don’t win at least one of next month’s special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii, Democrats will rightly claim that the GOP momentum has faded.

Predictably, both parties are downplaying the significance of the special elections to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) and former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii). Don’t believe the spin. 

If one side sweeps the two contests, that party will be making a big deal of its triumphs.

The nation’s apparent distaste for incumbents will be gauged in May. A new poll shows that Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) is facing an uphill climb to cement a spot on the final ballot for his party’s primary on June 22. The top two contenders will be decided at the Utah GOP convention on May 8. Bennett is now running third, according to the Salt Lake Tribune poll. 

Other incumbents facing challenging primaries over the next month include Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Arlen Specter (D-Pa.). Lincoln on May 18 is facing Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who has attracted strong support from organized labor. 

Specter, who has been endorsed by President Barack Obama, is favored to win his May 18 primary against a House incumbent, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.). The winner is expected to face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in the general election. 

Meanwhile, a few House GOP incumbents next week will have some butterflies in their stomachs as the returns come in. Reps. Dan Burton (Ind.), Mark Souder (Ind.) and Patrick McHenry (N.C.) are facing primary challengers, but all are expected to win.