Primaries and reform of Wall Street

Incumbents are usually heavily favored to win their primary and general elections, but this week, two senators are sweating out intra-party challenges.

President Barack Obama has endorsed both Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), but polls show their primary races will be tight.

{mosads}And this year, especially in primaries, polls are not as accurate. For example, Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) earlier this month released a poll showing him leading over Mike Oliverio, his primary challenger. Days later, Oliverio stunned Mollohan, leaving the incumbent trailing 12 percentage points behind.

The House special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) will be viewed as a key indicator of what is to come this fall. If Republican Tim Burns wins, more prognosticators will say the House will return to GOP control. If Democrat Mark Critz triumphs, Republicans will be less bold with predictions about seizing control of the lower chamber.

Still, it’s worth noting that Republicans in 2006 won the special-election race to replace Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.) — and later that year lost 30 seats and their majority.

On Capitol Hill, the Senate looks like it will finally clear a financial regulatory reform bill. The legislation has the votes to pass, but the question is: How many Senate Republicans will back it? And will House Republicans, who unanimously rejected the version passed by the House, be more willing to back the bill that will emerge from conference discussions?

There is much left on the agenda that Democrats want to wrap up before the Memorial Day recess, including a tax extender package, war supplemental and possibly a budget resolution.

On an array of big-ticket bills, including the war bill, House leaders have urged the Senate to go first in order to protect politically vulnerable members from voting on policies that might not become law.

Obama administration officials will be testifying this week on their response to the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) attempt to generate momentum for their new climate change bill.

Other hearings this week will tackle the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the May market plunge, the D.C. Metro budget, filibuster reform and Internet gambling.