The current continuing resolution keeping the federal government funded is scheduled to expire on November 17. As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s deja vu all over again!” Fortunately, the House just passed a new CR. Hopefully the Senate will pass one and President Biden will sign one before the deadline.
It is important to avoid shutdowns. They result in undue disruption, reduced productivity and additional costs to the taxpayers, since all federal employees would receive retroactive pay and some penalties could result relating to federal contracts. Shockingly, the only part of the federal government that would continue to be paid on time is the very Congress that would be responsible for the shutdown! This must change.
Speaker Mike Johnson has committed to consider individual appropriations bills through the regular order, but that will take time. He has also committed to avoiding another bloated omnibus bill. These are positive steps.
While we are still debating Fiscal 2024 funding levels, we have a much bigger problem that needs to be addressed. The credit rating agencies have already expressed their displeasure with the current fiscal situation and political state of affairs. Fitch downgraded U.S. debt in August and Moody’s reduced its outlook on that debt to negative last week. Unless things change, it is only a matter of time before S&P takes action. This puts additional upward pressure on federal interest costs.
Given the above, a new CR is essential, but the real questions should be: at what level, for how long and with what conditions? As an objective political independent and one of the nation’s leading fiscal responsibility advocates, I would respectfully suggest the following.
Regarding level, authorizing spending at base Fiscal 2023 levels — excluding any non-recurring items, which are significant — would seem to be a reasonable interim solution. These levels can be adjusted downward or upward when individual appropriations bills are considered. As the House bill provides, recent supplemental spending requests should be considered separately and not as part of the CR.
Additional funds are clearly needed to continue to support Ukraine, to help Israel and to secure the southern border. However, these deserve separate consideration and should come with appropriate conditions.
For example, we should match contributions from European nations, rather than provide a disproportionate share of total aid to Ukraine. Israel needs assistance in a timely manner, but it is likely to further strain our weapons stockpiles. We need to take steps to strengthen our related industrial base given the changing security threats.
Finally, we need funding for border security and not for more processing, distribution and support of illegal immigrants. The border is not secure, and this is unacceptable. America needs immigrants given our nation’s low fertility rate, but there is a big difference between legal and illegal immigration.
The House bill provides for funding until relatively early in the new calendar year. That seems reasonable under the circumstances.
Importantly, we need to not just focus on Fiscal 2024 but start taking steps to deal with our structural fiscal challenge. Our debt/GDP ratio is already too high and rising. Interest is America’s fastest growing federal expense — spending for which we get nothing. In addition, certain Social Security and Medicare trust funds are set to go to zero within 10 years, resulting in significant and immediate reductions in benefits absent action. Doing nothing is not a viable option.
Given the above, ideally the CR should include the recently proposed Fiscal Stability Act or some version thereof. We must create a capable, credible and appropriately funded commission that will educate and engage the American people on the nature and extent of our fiscal challenge, the need for timely action and the consequences of failing to act, while soliciting input on possible solutions.
I have conducted such activities in 47 states, DC, and two U.S. territories over several years — with very positive results. The people are ahead of the politicians, they can handle the truth and “We the People” are the key to defusing our ticking debt bomb.
This Fiscal Stability Commission would make a package of recommendations designed to reduce debt/GDP to a reasonable and sustainable level by a year certain. The commission’s recommendations would receive an up or down vote in Congress. Ultimately, members of Congress and the president would have to make a decision regarding the commission’s recommendations, but the ground needs to be tilled with voters and the table set for a tough but necessary vote.
The American people’s confidence in Congress and the president are at or near record lows. The time has come to create a mechanism that will help us address our irresponsible, unethical and immoral fiscal path either as part of the CR or in a separate piece of legislation. Hopefully the Congress and the president can come together to do what is right for both today and tomorrow. Our future economic security, national security, international standing and domestic tranquility are at stake.
David Walker served as U.S. comptroller general from 1998 to 2008 and is a board member at the Federal Fiscal Sustainability Foundation.