Economics 101 tells us there’s no going back from Trumpism

Editor’s Note: This piece was updated to correct an individual’s job and title. We regret the error.

Perhaps the boldest idea raised at last week’s Atlantic Festival came in the form of a eulogy.

Karl Rove, appearing without his trademark whiteboard, predicted that both Donald Trump and Trumpism will be forever finished within the GOP, should the former president lose in November. 

“The good news for more traditional Republicans,” Rove said, “is that [Trump] is sui generis,” Latin for “of his own kind.” 

“Who would follow him? Don Jr.? Right now he’s trying to figure out which girlfriend he actually has,” Rove quipped. He added that if you match up Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) or JD Vance (R-Ohio) versus Govs. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) and Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) or Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) “it’s hard to see that they have anywhere near the ability to mobilize a populist movement,” as Trump does.

Rove’s bet may prove prescient, but I doubt it. The former Bush advisor is wish-casting, and in the process, he’s ignoring glaring signs that there are both supply and demand side problems regarding Trumpism within the conservative movement. Indeed, if the lessons of freshman microeconomics seminars are to be believed, Trumpism will continue many, many years into the future regardless of who wins the White House. 

Now, Rove is correct to underscore the fact there is no heir apparent to the MAGA movement. Every potential successor with a realistic claim to Trump’s throne is plagued by manifest failings. 

The former president’s two eldest sons are non-starters. Vance — through some combination of derision towards “childless cat ladies” and racist conspiracy-theorizing — now enjoys the honor of being the least popular vice presidential candidate of the 21st century. 

Hawley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy all fall into what can be called the uncanny valley of Trumpist cosplay. Sure, they can role-play as Trump doppelgängers by imitating his mannerisms and rhetoric, but their charisma deficits make the performances read like bad burlesque.

But just because Trump’s line of succession is unclear doesn’t mean the political movement is doomed. Far from it.

On a different Atlantic Festival panel, former Republican National Committee spokesman and current “Never Trump” communications guru Tim Miller lamented the state of the GOP.

“Republican Party voters have decided that they want America First candidates. And even worse than that and creepier than that, they’ve decided that they like the people that are the most antisocial and deranged…in every race,” Miller said. 

He referenced North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s (R) gubernatorial primary victory. Now, prior to heading to the polls, Tar Heel State voters were unaware of the recent CNN report detailing Robinson’s prolific posting on the message boards of “Nude Africa.” They did not know about his identification as a “black NAZI,” his penchant for transgender pornography or his expressed desire to own slaves. 

However, they were well aware that Robinson was a Holocaust denier. They were well aware that Robinson expressed support for total abortion bans without exceptions for rape or incest. They were well aware that Robinson had compared queer people to feces, “maggots” and “flies.” 

And they were well aware that relatively sane, establishment North Carolina Republicans such as Sen. Thom Tillis (R) had very notably coalesced around and endorsed one of Robinson’s primary opponents, Bill Graham — whom Miller playfully described as “Joe Business.” 

North Carolina Republicans sided with Robinson over Graham, 65 percent to 16 percent. 

Arizona’s GOP Senate primary is another worthy case study. Election-denier and likely soon-to-be repeat loser Kari Lake was challenged by Beth Reye. Reye, a Johns Hopkins-educated doctor, ran on a platform of restoring truth and “Reagan Republicanism.” Lake won the primary with 55 percent. Reye finished a distant third behind Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (40 percent), securing just 5.2 percent of the electorate. 

Miller expanded on his thoughts about the future of the Republican Party on The Bulwark podcast, saying “It’s under-appreciated just from a supply and demand side, like, how bad the supply of Republican candidates is right now.” 

He called “the top two skills” being “the Trumpiest Trump fan in the world” and being “as mean to woke libs as you can.” 

The inevitable result: “You’re gonna get George Santos and Mark Robinson and Herschel Walker and Kari Lake. These are the people you’re gonna attract because you’re not judging for military service or business success or whatever,” Miller said.

Trumpism indeed presents both a supply and demand side problem for the GOP. In the last decade, the Republican base has made it abundantly clear, time and again, that it craves bombast and cruelty — and it will eagerly reward any cynical opportunist who provides it to them. 

As David Corn wrote in Mother Jones, “You cannot have selling without buying. You cannot have a con without a mark who wants to believe the con.” 

The base will not wake up on Nov. 6 and respond to a Harris victory with a heel turn back to 2000s “compassionate conservatism.” They will assert the election was rigged. They will unload on Harris with unfathomable bigotry, and expect either Trump or his successor to stay the course. 

Again, Rove is right about the sorry slate of potential MAGA heirs. I imagine he is further correct about the code-switching abilities of establishment figures like Youngkin, who may be just savvy enough to enamor the Trump base.

The supply-side problem of Trumpism will wane, should the former president lose in November. But the demand side problem will not. The Republican base’s desire for burn-it-all down conspiratorial bluster is a relatively new, but I now fear permanent, fixture of American politics. It will not dissipate if Harris wins, and it will not likely disappear for many years to come. 

And as we learned in undergrad, market forces tend naturally to match supply with demand. So even if there’s not a ready Trump successor now, the invisible hand will conjure one up down the road.

The notion that the party of Lincoln is but one more election loss away from course-correcting back to the glowing, genial days of George H.W. Bush is a fantasy. 

In the last few weeks, the Harris-Walz team has appeared to adopt an unofficial campaign slogan: “We’re not going back.” Republicans might as well start chanting that mantra, too.

Peter Rothpletz is a freelance journalist and former commentary writer for MSNBC.