Why Canada is sounding the alarm about American extremism

The last week of August can often be a sleepy news time in America, Florida’s hurricane notwithstanding. But Canada is making news — and not just about its ongoing wildfires.

This week, Canada made headlines with suggestions by the Canadian minister of foreign affairs, Melanie Joly, that her nation is considering a “game plan” for how to react if America takes a hard right politically. “We are certainly working on scenarios,” she told a Montreal radio station, voicing concern about an authoritarian shift after our presidential elections next year.

Like wildfires, political news in a dry season can spread, and these seemingly innocuous comments in Ottawa put Washington, D.C. on edge, leading to the obvious question of why Joly directed such negative attention toward U.S.-Canadian relations.

First, remember that every nation uses public diplomacy — that is, the crafting of messages designed for domestic and international audiences to reinforce strategic interests and values. In the case of Canada, the narrative is almost always one of openness toward America, given the shared border and common interests in democracy, trade and the environment.

As the Canadian government’s own website explains, “our two countries share a deep and longstanding defense and national security partnership, providing both countries with greater security than could be achieved, individually.”

But Canada also understands that a presidential debate is unfolding in America, and sees that former President Donald Trump is leading the polls on the Republican side.

So why would Canada care?

The former president believed in an “America First” policy, which offended many Canadians, who worried it was too isolationist.

The relationship between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was cordial. But despite outward politeness, Canadian officials were seething over the trade policies and abrupt tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and products during his administration.

Recently, Trudeau has taken aim at the notion of an American presidency based around rhetorical violence — a veiled reference to Trump. At an event at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York Trudeau said, “You guys are the greatest democracy in the world,” adding that he was concerned about people thinking government was rigged or spreading anger about elections.

Internal politics also matter when evaluating what government officials from any nation say. Inside Canada, there are growing concerns over extremist politics and the rise of white nationalism. Hence, there might be a bit of projection in the foreign minister’s comments.

Global trade is also a potential area of friction between a conservative America and a progressive Canada.

Trade and investment between Canada and the United States is critical to both countries — and something the White House touts. Canada remains one of America’s largest trading partners, with “nearly $2.6 billion in goods and services crossing our shared border — an almost 20 percent increase in 2022 over the previous year.”

Canada is also a member of NATO and supports strong financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

But in the recent GOP debate, some candidates on the stage questioned American assistance to Ukraine and who should foot the bill.

Lastly, a large shared interest between Canada and the U.S. is climate change. The foreign minister might have been concerned to hear a Republican candidate for president, Vivek Ramaswamy, state recently that the climate agenda was “a hoax.”

Canadian and American politics rarely collide. But let’s not forget those bus convoys with truckers protesting COVID-19 mandates back in February 2022, which ended up creating bottlenecks at the U.S.-Canadian border. A displeased Canadian government declared a state of emergency.

And Canada took the pandemic quite seriously, with travel mandates, restrictions, masks and other public health measures — many of which Donald Trump and other Republican candidates appear unlikely to advocate.

In the end, the comments by Canada’s foreign minister might be a tempest in a teapot. But in these hot end-of-summer days, political debates tend to simmer.

Tara D. Sonenshine is the Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in public diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.