No border wall money may mean more border troops

If Congress won’t help President Trump find $5 billion to build a southern border wall, the alternative may cost U.S. taxpayers even more money over the next two years. Though some troops have begun heading home, around 4,200 active-duty troops remain and it’s possible that the president will use expanded and extended troop border deployments as a bargaining chip to pressure Congress to capitulate to his wall-funding demands.

Despite his recent tweet, the president’s plan to use the military to build the wall is problematic since it is not “for a military purpose” in accordance with defense appropriations and spending requirements. But he can and will continue to use the military to secure the border as a homeland defense mission.

{mosads}Operation Faithful Patriot (now referred to as “border support”) began on Nov. 1 and was set to conclude on Dec. 15. A Pentagon report to Congress estimated the cost of the six-week mission at $72 million for the roughly 6,000 active-duty forces involved. The same report estimated $138 million in expenses thus far for the 2,100 National Guard troops serving in Title 32 status approved by the Pentagon. The National Guard has supported border efforts under this authorization since April 2018.

Pentagon spokesman Col. Rob Manning noted, “The total cost of the operation has yet to be determined and will depend on the total size, duration and scope of the (Department of Defense) support to (Department of Homeland Security).” On Dec. 4, the Pentagon approved an extension of the border mission through Jan. 31, 2019, adding more speculation to the rising costs and extent of the support effort. While Defense Secretary James Mattis has doubted the accuracy of the cost estimates, we can use them to project what an expanded and extended operation may cost relative to the $5 billion requested by President Trump for the border wall.

The active-duty element of the border support mission costs about $48 million per month ($12 million per week). National Guard operations thus far have averaged $15 million to $17 million monthly (eight to nine months of Defense-funded operations at $138 million). With this, we assume the military border support costs around $64 million a month for the 6,000 active-duty and the 2,100 Guard troops.

Assuming troop levels remain constant, this results in $768 million a year in military border support expenses. At this rate, it would take about 6.5 years to reach the $5 billion threshold from the original request. However, the president can — and might — greatly increase the size, scope and duration of the military border support mission while he remains in office.

In October, President Trump stated that he would consider tripling the size of the deployed active-duty forces at the border to as many as 15,000 troops. Consider as well that only 2,100 of the 4,000 authorized National Guard members currently serve at the border. By tripling the active-duty forces and doubling the Guard members involved — and increasing their relative costs by the same factor — the increased expense for the border support effort potentially reaches $178 million a month, or $2.14 billion per year.

At this rate, we would reach $5 billion in military border support expenses in 28 months. And this assumes no air assets, since nearly all of the projected troop numbers and costs are associated with ground troops. Adding Air Force personnel and platforms to assist in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and other missions adds expense and accelerates the approach to the $5 billion threshold. With 25 months remaining in this term of office, it’s conceivable that President Trump could expand and extend troop deployments indefinitely over the next two years and eclipse the price tag he first requested for the wall.

Some may say that it’s not an equal comparison since the money to support military deployments is already factored into the Department of Defense (DOD) budget, whereas the $5 billion request for wall funding is an additional expense proposal. This is true, but it seems like the money will be spent one way or another to secure the border or increase the DOD budget.

This is not so say that an expansion and extension of military deployments to the border should happen; it is to say, rather, that it could happen under this president. We’re either going to spend $5 billion to start building a wall on the border, or we’re going to spend $5 billion for troops to stand on the border for the next two years — it’s a matter of what we gain for the same multi-year expenditure in the end.

Ryan Burke, Ph.D., is an associate professor of military and strategic studies at the U.S. Air Force Academy and a former Marine Corps officer. The views expressed here are his and do not reflect the official position of the United States Air Force Academy, Department of the Air Force, or Department of Defense.