Are we ready for when dictatorships implode over rising food prices?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, impeding access to two of the world’s most important agricultural nations, has caused food prices to skyrocket across the globe. Even commodities the combatants do not export have become more expensive, as people substitute away from the wheat and sunflower oil that is no longer available. Moreover, with energy prices also soaring, many developing countries have even less money available for food at the very time they need more.

Rapidly rising food prices historically have spurred numerous popular rebellions against otherwise stable despots. People who otherwise would fear repression if they challenged their corrupt regime become frightened and desperate when they cannot feed their families. We have every reason to expect such explosions of national anger at any moment.

Unfortunately, our short-sighted policies have contributed to the persecution and often eradication of pro-democracy movements in many of these countries. Secular democratic opposition figures could assume leadership of popular revolts and channel the anger into positive paths. If we do not begin aggressively defending these courageous but embattled figures, any upheavals that occur are likely to be hijacked by intolerant religious extremists or a new generation of corrupt, opportunistic despots.

Although the Arab Spring revolutions of a decade ago are widely seen as efforts to democratize and modernize despotic regimes, they were triggered by rapidly rising bread prices. The pivotal Egyptian revolution’s leading slogan was “Bread, Freedom, and Social Justice.” Shortages of state-subsidized bread at a time of rising unemployment and food price inflation of 18.9 percent helped bring people to the streets. Similar price hikes triggered rebellions throughout the region, during the Arab Spring and since.

Affluent Western countries often underestimate the importance of food prices to economically insecure people in the developing world. People struggling to feed their families, particularly under repressive regimes, may feel that politics is a luxury they cannot afford. When food prices soar, however, they may feel they have no choice but to take to the streets.

Few countries have more potential to lead, in positive or negative directions, than Egypt. Egypt is home to roughly a quarter of the world’s Arab population and a key player in military, political, cultural, and religious affairs. It is also a top wheat importer.

Decades ago, President Anwar el-Sadat reversed a bread price increase after popular anger risked toppling his government. Since then, successive governments have kept the price of basic bread low to ensure its availability to low-income Egyptians.

With the Egyptian economy in tatters because of corruption and the pandemic, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the current president, last year suggested raising bread prices. He met a hailstorm of criticism, and his government quickly back-pedaled. Now, it may have no choice. Other governments in the region are in a similar bind.

Lebanon is in even worse shape. Although nominally much more democratic than Egypt, its politics remain corrupted by blocs serving as proxies for rival foreign powers.

Hungry people filled the streets in Sri Lanka, which can no longer afford food after its economy largely collapsed.

Protesters have roiled Guinea’s capital.

The list goes on.

Under these conditions, it is all too easy for a demagogue promising “easy” solutions, or blaming familiar scapegoats, to push their way to the front of the mob. Demagogues will not, of course, bring their people any lasting relief, but before that becomes clear they will have cemented themselves into power.

Egypt, again, provides a classic example: When millions of Egyptians rose up against Mohamed Morsi, the elected but repressive and incompetent Muslim Brotherhood president, Gen. al-Sisi claimed to represent their aspirations and seized power. Only after killing thousands of peaceful Brotherhood and secular protesters and jailing or exiling any opposition figures that could threaten him did Gen. al-Sisi hold tightly controlled sham elections.

There is a better way.

Rather than having popular uprisings over food prices trigger yet another phase in the endless dichotomy between military despots and Islamist despots, these rebellions could provide the opportunity for meaningful, lasting change. Secular, democratic governance could destabilize the corruption that saps economies of their potential to grow. It also could redirect public funds from endless military build-ups to meeting the needs of the people. And when, as is inevitable, incompetents manage to enter the presidential palace, democratic transitions can show them the door before they do the kind of lasting damage that Gens. Mubarak and al-Sisi have done in Egypt.

Unfortunately, the food rebellions are unlikely to take a positive turn if these countries’ secular democratic leaders remain in prison.

After belatedly and briefly supporting the Arab Spring protests, the Obama administration largely lost interest. The Trump administration, too, had its moment of sanctioning the repressive al-Sisi regime, but then the two presidents bonded.

President Biden can do better.

Egyptian democratic activist and blogger Alaa Abdel-Fattah, a key leader in the Arab Spring, has been jailed repeatedly since al-Sisi seized power. He is now on a hunger strike, his health reportedly failing.  Gen. al-Sisi claims he wants a broad national dialogue, but imprisons rather than speaking to genuine opposition voices like Abdel-Fattah.

President Biden can and should send a clear signal to Gen. al-Sisi that progress in bilateral relations will be impossible as long as he imprisons legitimate opposition voices. He should specifically insist that Abdel-Fattah be released and given the medical treatment he needs.

Standing up for imprisoned secular democrats is worth it. Just as a democratic, prosperous Ukraine will inevitably cause Russians and Belarusians to question their dictatorial regimes, a free democratic Egypt would undermine the many despotic regimes in the region. An Egypt that allows its people, many highly educated, to realize their potential would rapidly achieve sustainable prosperity in a region known for economic stagnation and dependence on fossil fuels.

David A. Super is the Carmack Waterhouse Professor of Law and Economics at Georgetown University Law Center. He also served for several years as the general counsel for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Follow him on Twitter @DavidASuper1