Israel’s incoming government will face hurdles

Benjamin Netanyahu has been tasked by Israel’s president with forming a new government after a year in which a different coalition ran the country. The return of Netanyahu as prime minister looks to present him with the opportunity to form a more stable and more right-leaning government than in the past. He was already in charge for a formative decade, guiding Israel through 10 years in which the Syrian civil war took place on the northern border and much changed in the Middle East. Now he has a chance to set the stage for Israel’s next moves in the region. 

Netanyahu will have the support of his Likud party, as well as religious parties in the incoming Knesset. Initially, concerns regarding Netanyahu’s new government will focus on whether it includes far-right voices and whether those political allies receive top-level ministries, such as the defense portfolio. Therefore, Netanyahu returns to office as a kind of known quantity, having governed for long, but he also will face new challenges. 

Among the first priorities of the government will be managing the uptick in violence in the West Bank. During Netanayhu’s first decade in power, he sought to shift focus to the Iranian threat and to Israel’s strategic partnerships with countries such as India. Even during the lead-up to the Abraham Accords, in which Israel signed peace deals with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, Israel was focusing on how to bypass the Palestinians. This means Israel was seeking ties with countries in the Middle East that could be accomplished without first needing a peace deal with the Palestinians. Netanyahu articulated this doctrine, arguing that “the strong are respected” and that alliances are made with strong countries.  

Today, Israel faces near-daily clashes in the West Bank, including with members of Islamic Jihad and a new militant group called Lion’s Den. Netanyahu’s coalition partners likely will include members of the Religious-Zionist party and it’s plausible that having a more right-wing coalition could lead to tensions with the Palestinians. Netanyahu will have to manage that conflict and keep an eye on whether the violence is boiling over.  

Second, Israel continues to face Iranian threats and Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Iran has been exporting drones to Russia over the past several months, which could mean that Iran is increasing its drone program. This could have implications because Iran could create new production lines for the drones that Russia is using to terrorize Ukraine. Iran may learn from Russia’s use of the drones and then put those same drones to use against Israel. Although Israel has advanced air defenses to defend against drones, Iran has shown in the past that it can put in play a variety of threats across the region.  

Third, Netanyahu will have to concentrate on building on the Abraham Accords and the positive relations that the outgoing Israeli government has focused on. For example, the administrations of Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett successfully used the foreign ministry and Defense Minister Benny Gantz to conduct high-level trips to places such as Turkey and Morocco. Israel also has had important meetings with UAE leaders and participated in forums alongside the Gulf states. Israel’s defense industry, for example, showcased its technology at the Bahrain International Air Show in November and Israel Air Force Chief of Air Staff Brig. Gen. Eyal Grinboim participated in an air force commanders’ conference in Bahrain.  

The kind of public events the Lapid-Bennett government had, including meetings with European countries and Middle Eastern states, were important and Netanyahu will have to make sure his coalition partners don’t derail this progress.

Lastly, Israel will have to manage relations with Ukraine, Russia and Saudi Arabia. There has been increasing pressure for Israel to supply Kyiv with defense weapons. Netanyahu will be reluctant to consent to this and he will have to explain Israel’s position. At the same time, Israel will have to manage its ties with Russia, which has forces in Syria. Israel and Saudi Arabia have grown closer over the years, but so far there has been no normalization in ties. Working with the Saudis will be another tightrope that Netanyahu will have to walk in the coming years.

Seth J. Frantzman is executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. A former assistant professor of American Studies at Al-Quds University, he covers the Middle East for The Jerusalem Post and is a Ginsburg/Milstein writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of “Drone Wars.” Follow him on Twitter @sfrantzman.