Does Mexico want to be the next Nicaragua?

Freedom is not free, and in Mexico, they know it well. The people fight tooth and nail for their democracy. They do not want a country of the “strong man” but a nation of solid institutions. That is why they protesting in the thousands to oppose Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (“ALMO”) electoral law changes that threaten the independence and integrity of the National Electoral Institute (INE), the agency responsible for organizing the country’s democratic elections. They do not want to become the next Cuba or Nicaragua.

The case of Nicaragua

In the 1990s, Nicaragua began to have free, fair and transparent elections — and its leader Daniel Ortega began to lose elections over and over again. There was no way he was going to win an election under democratic rules. Never. Apparently, when he realized this small technicality, he began to reform the Nicaraguan constitution and the electoral law, obtaining full control of the arbitrator and of the results.

In Nicaragua, weak institutions have guaranteed the entrenchment of a strong and ferocious dictatorship. Ortega may have arrived through votes, but he has remained in power for 16 years through bullets and repression.

Ortega’s initial story is not very different from AMLO’s. In reality, they are both sore losers. When they don’t win an election, they say that there was fraud, and when they win an election, they want to weaken the institutions. The same anti-democratic pattern seen in Bolivia and Venezuela.

Elections in Cuba

In Cuba, there are elections, but never surprises. The government party wins 100 percent of the popular election positions. The system has been designed to vote, but not to choose. In Mexico, López Obrador appears to admire and honor the 64-year-old Cuban “exemplary democracy” that maintains more than 1,000 political prisoners.

A tiger without claws or fangs

Far from promoting an efficient and less bureaucratic electoral body, AMLO’s electoral reform, known as Plan B, seeks to transform the INE into a tiger without claws or fangs. In other words, 85 percent fewer professional personnel, less supervisory capacity, and greater dependence on the executive branch.

Obrador claims, “México has more democracy than the U.S.”

Brian A. Nichols, U.S. assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere, stated that, “Today, in Mexico, we see a great debate on electoral reforms that are testing the independence of electoral and judicial institutions. The United States supports independent, well-resourced electoral institutions that strengthen democratic processes and the rule of law.”

ALMO responded with a false claim, “There is more democracy in Mexico than could exist in the United States. If they want to have a debate on this issue, let’s do it.” According to the Democracy Index, issued by The Economist, the United States is a “full democracy” while Mexico is a “hybrid regime,” which is assigned to countries that “enjoy elements of democracy, but suffer from weaknesses that are more pronounced than in a ‘flawed democracy.’” Mexico is among seven countries in Latin America registering “big negative changes in their scores in 2022.”

A personal vendetta with the electoral watchdog

Obrador’s personal vendetta with the electoral body has been festering since 2006.AMLO claims the electoral institution was guilty of a fraud that never existed. However, this claim has been a ghost that haunts him day and night. A stone in the shoe for his apparent anti-democratic aspirations.

In defense of the Mexican electoral system. Journalist Beatriz Pagés has said, “They want to mutilate the INE because they are in the way of free voting. AMLO’s Plan B is the chronicle of an announced fraud and whoever used the INE to come to power today wants to kill him.”

Mexico is fighting for its democracy

The INE has been an example for all of Latin America. Democratic changes are possible, but not accidental. Strong institutions and organized citizens are required to defend those institutions against the voracious appetites of caudillos on duty.

Although AMLO’s Plan B has won the first battle in Mexico’s Senate, the country’s Supreme Court will have the last word. At this moment, one thing is clear: Mexico does not want to have Cuban-style elections, much less a dictatorship like Nicaragua’s. That is why they have taken to the streets and will continue to do so.

Arturo McFields Yescas is former ambassador of Nicaragua to the Organization of American States. Follow him on Twitter: @ArturoMcfields