Israelis have long said they can defend themselves — by themselves. But it has also been axiomatic that the U.S. would continue to provide a “qualitative edge” in weaponry plus rock-solid political support. Is that still true?
Israel is now a tinder box. The convergence of Passover, Easter and Ramadan has increased tensions in Jerusalem as all faiths intersect in the Old City and on what Jews call the Temple Mount (Al-Aqsa Mosque). It is not only an inter-religious problem but an intra-religious problem as Israel is convulsed with huge protests against recent steps by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightwing government to unravel the fragile democratic pluralism that has been the bedrock of the Israeli state since its founding 75 years ago.
Support for Israel is also eroding in the United States. Gone are the days when Israeli governments courted both parties and support was approved by Congress on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis. Support among Democrats for Israel has fallen to new lows, with more than 80 House Democrats urging President Biden “to use all diplomatic tools available to prevent Israel’s current government from further damaging the nation’s democratic institutions.”
Hostility toward Jewish students on college campuses has increased along with support for sanctions against products produced in territories “occupied” by Israel, including the West Bank.
Add Iran, where the chances are slim to none that the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was formerly supported by Russia and China in addition to the West, can be revived. On top of the recent China-brokered rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, Iran is at breakout: it has enough highly enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs and fewer tensions with its other regional competitors. The U.S. and Israel have both said they won’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon. So, now what?
And what if the rest of the region starting with Saudi Arabia now takes steps to acquire nuclear weapons, too?
The timing couldn’t be worse, as the West is focused on Ukraine, a resurgent China that’s threatening to attack Taiwan and as toxic politics are increasing everywhere. Israel has just announced that it holds the Syrian government responsible for Iranian proxies attacking Israel from Syria. What will the U.S. do if the Middle East calculates or miscalculates its way into war?
And what if that war could involve the threat and possible use of nuclear weapons?
No doubt the Pentagon has contingency plans, but the policy options are difficult. Plus, building political support would be extremely challenging at this point.
Netanyahu faces huge obstacles, too, as the Israeli military has made clear it does not support dismantling the judiciary (a key objective of the current Netanyahu coalition) because that will cause even more unrest. Netanyahu abruptly fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, a few weeks ago, after he expressed opposition to the move. Faced with enormous public outrage at the firing, Netanyahu then put the decision “on hold” and just announced Gallant will stay.
Even if the United States finds its footing, will our leadership be followed? Many in the Middle East are disillusioned following our chaotic exit from Afghanistan. Most Gulf countries have abstained from condemning Russia for its unlawful invasion of Ukraine, and Israel abstained from a resolution on making Russia pay reparations. Many Gulf countries are now engaged in warming relations with Iran as well as China.
There is not infinite time to sort all this out. Indeed, there may be little or no time. Hopefully, these holiest of days will lead to reconciliation and forgiveness. But the opposite is just as likely.
Former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) served nine terms in Congress, during which she served as ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee after 9/11. She is the chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, chair of the Board of Freedom House, president emerita of the Wilson Center and author of “Insanity Defense: Why our Failure to Solve National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe.”