Words matter — especially in war.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to his country this week, he uttered the words “decisive action” to describe how he would respond to an internal military challenge by his own mercenary force, the Wagner Group. In an escalating potential internal civil war in Russia, the man who was aiding and abetting Putin’s soldiers in Ukraine has now claimed to be in control of Rostov-on-Don, a southern port city in Russia that serves as a critical command center for the Kremlin’s military operation.
“Decisive action” is code for combat and potential doom.
Putin is now in a major corner. Having allowed the Wagner Group, a private army of killers known for their brutal treatment of civilians, to participate in the war in Ukraine, he has opened the way for a rift with them — a rift that could, let me repeat could, lead to a coup in Moscow.
At a minimum, Wagner Group’s attempt to assert itself into Russia will distract Putin and his generals from their war in Ukraine. While trying to bomb Ukraine into submission, the Russian military now must deal with a surrounded Russian city where Wagner troops are challenging official Russian authority.
The Wagner Group came to force in 2014 during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. Since then, it has deployed its private soldiers around the world, from Syria to the Central African Republic and inside Ukraine, where it controls some 50,000 troops.
Its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a wealthy tycoon who won huge Russian construction contracts while building a private army, benefitted from corruption. He cornered the Russian market on catering of all things and used proceeds to expand the Wagner Group, a reference, some believe, to the German composer Richard Wagner.
But now, in a Shakespearean twist, Prigozhin, sometimes referred to as “Putin’s Chef,” is biting the hand that feeds him.
The same money and power that has corrupted Putin and his oligarchs in Russia spawned the Wagner Group and its leader, which now seeks revenge for a Ukrainian war that has not gone according to plan.
It was only a matter of time before Putin showed a few cracks in his armor. Tensions and rifts within the Russian military have been rising throughout the last few months as the Ukrainian counter-offensive has strained Russian resources and exposed problems for Putin, who has thrown everything at the war — including prison inmates.
But the real question is: Now what?
What comes next is not easy to predict. Brutal dictators never bend easily. Putin will not stand idly by as a Russian port city is overtaken by people on his payroll.
Calls of “mutiny” could enflame passions by ordinary Russians who so far have stood by despite the loss of their own soldiers. It’s conceivable that some Russian soldiers will defect.
Much depends on how swiftly Putin can put down the rebellion, or indeed whether he can. Expect curfews and martial law in Rostov and possibly other cities.
Ukraine might get a short reprieve, but Russia still has close to 400,000 soldiers there and plenty of drones and military equipment to unleash further bloodshed. It would be shocking if the Wagner Group advanced to Moscow. But Washington and Europe will be planning for any possibility and have already convened emergency meetings.
Vladimir Putin says he feels “betrayed.” He should have thought of that before invading Ukraine. He betrayed Europe, the United States and the entire world with his global disruption of security. He chose this war, but he might not choose its outcome. As Shakespeare wrote in “Julius Caesar,” “Men at some time are masters of their fates: The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings.”
Tara D. Sonenshine is the Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in Public Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.