There is still time for Biden to deter Iran and support Israel

President Joe Biden warned Iran to “be careful” after Hamas killed 1,400 Israelis and 22 Americans in its Oct. 7 terrorist attack. But Tehran ignored his empty threats, and the Middle East is on the cusp of a regional war.

Biden has only himself to blame. His policy of maximum deference to the Islamic Republic has backfired, creating a dangerous situation for Washington and Jerusalem. Yet there is still time for Biden to reverse himself and strengthen deterrence; above all, he should start enforcing U.S. sanctions already on the books and authorize U.S. troops to retaliate when fired upon by Iran-backed militias.

Within days of the massacre, the administration began to downplay Iran’s role in the Hamas attack. Unnamed senior officials suggested the U.S. intelligence community was still looking for evidence of Iran’s direct involvement. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged Tehran provides “support and capabilities to Hamas” but stopped short of pointing fingers at the Islamic Republic.

These word games miss the point: Tehran has spent decades training, funding and arming Hamas precisely so it could murder Israelis. Its direct responsibility is already established.

To remind Iran to be careful, Biden is moving military assets, including two U.S. aircraft carriers, to the Eastern Mediterranean. The message isn’t getting through. Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen responded by launching four cruise missiles and 15 drones toward Israel that were intercepted by USS Carney in the Red Sea. U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq have been targeted several times by Iran-backed militia since Biden’s warning. Hezbollah, with its arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, is launching daily attacks on targets inside Israel.

The Islamic Republic’s approach is not surprising. For nearly three years, the administration has offered Tehran concessions while Iran expanded its nuclear program and attacked Americans in the region. Washington’s deliberately lax sanctions implementation has allowed the Islamic Republic to earn an additional $26-$29 billion from oil exports, according to calculations by my colleague, economist Saeed Ghasseminejad.

Biden additionally acquiesced to Iran’s hostage diplomacy by releasing $6 billion held by South Korea to facilitate the release of unduly held Americans. Washington also approved Iran’s access to $10 billion transferred from Iraq to Oman.

The administration’s appeasement has also allowed Tehran to approach the threshold of nuclear weapons. Following Biden’s election, Iran significantly increased its nuclear activities, for example enriching uranium to unprecedented levels. Now, Iran could sprint to nuclear weapons with little or no warning. One estimate suggests Iran could produce nuclear material for a weapon in as little as 12 days.

The Islamic Republic knows that nuclear weapons could provide a way to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem. Tehran likely noticed that the administration’s fear of Moscow’s nuclear threats in the Ukraine war led the U.S. to moderate its support for Kyiv. Israel has its own undeclared nuclear arsenal, complicating Tehran’s calculus, but Iran could move toward weaponization to coerce Biden to push Israel to deescalate the situation.

Biden faces an inflection point in his presidency. He must realize that Tehran does not care about its international standing; the mullahs only respond to force and resolve.

First, Washington should respond with force to the attacks from Iran-supported proxies in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The administration should go beyond last week’s strikes on weapons and ammunition storage facilities in Syria, hitting Iranian interests and personnel responsible for the attacks. At the same time, Washington should send a strong private message to Iran: Stay out of this conflict and hands off Americans, or we take wider action to cripple you, your nuclear program, and your proxies.

Next, Biden should authorize the Treasury Department to disrupt the funding of Hamas and other Iran-backed terrorist groups, even if it requires Washington to confront nominal allies such as Qatar that have been playing a double game. Doha has provided more than $100 million to Hamas while Turkey, Malaysia, Algeria and Kuwait also provide support. The administration should remind them that America will not sit by as terrorists target Israelis and Americans. These countries should know that continued terrorism financing will jeopardize their continued access to the U.S. financial system.

Third, Washington should immediately reverse its Iran nuclear policy. Biden should direct the secretary of the Treasury to implement fully all Iran sanctions, including oil sanctions. The administration could then reach across the aisle and embrace congressional efforts to invigorate sanctions against Iran. The U.S. should also work with France and the United Kingdom to initiate the return or “snapback” of all UN sanctions against Iran.

Finally, the president should state publicly that any effort to aid Iran’s sanctions evasion will be met with severe consequences. Senior Treasury and State Department officials should travel to key countries that have previously evaded Iran sanctions to reinforce this message.

The Hamas terrorist attack against Israel will shape the remainder of Biden’s presidency. He has allowed America’s adversaries to challenge his resolve; now he must respond by reminding them that America stands with its allies.

Anthony Ruggiero is a senior fellow and senior director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He previously served as the National Security Council’s senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense from 2019 to 2021.