How to resolve the issue of Palestinian refugees

The first cease-fire of the Israel-Hamas War is an opportunity to ponder how the cataclysmic events of the past seven weeks can move the needle on longer-term conflict resolution. Not all the news has been bleak.

Hamas (and Iran) received the results they sought from the October 7 attack — massive and devastating Israeli retaliation, a suspension of Israel-Saudi normalization and a potential regional conflict. Global pro-Hamas demonstrations were a bonus. The slogan chanted heard in Western capitals — “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” — can only be interpreted as calling for the eradication of the State of Israel.

In stark contrast, the November 11 communique issued by the “Extraordinary Joint Arab-Islamic Summit,” held under Saudi auspices in Riyadh, while comprehensive in its condemnation of Israel, was careful to reinforce multiple times that “Israeli occupation” meant the territories captured in the 1967 war — not the entire country.

In the Organization of Islamic Countries and the Arab League there is, naturally, strong support for Palestinians in Gaza in light of Israeli bombing. But there is little support for Hamas. As an Islamist group, Hamas poses a danger to virtually every Arab government and most OIC governments. Qatar, of course, is the exception in the Arab League as the host to Hamas leadership and supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is not the time to ignore the multiple traumas inflicted and absorbed by both sides. Nor is it a kumbaya moment. But, from the cataclysmic events of the past seven weeks, we can start to move to longer-range strategic thinking and deal with issues previously ignored.

Israel has discovered that, as a matter of policy, it cannot ignore 6 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Conversely, Palestinians, and their undiscerning pro-Hamas allies in the West, need to internalize that 9 million Israelis are not going away either.

One revelation in the aftermath of October 7 is that the over 2 million Israeli Arabs mostly see themselves as Israelis, despite all the problems and discrimination they may face.

I have written previously that after the fighting stops, an Arab-led international peacekeeping force would be required, along with Gulf Cooperation Council–funded reconstruction of Gaza, guaranteeing that actual infrastructure for the people of Gaza gets built and not Hamas tunnels. There also must be a major curb on Israeli settlers and settlement expansion. The ultimate goal must be movement towards conflict resolution.

The Saudi Peace Plan, adopted by the Arab League in Beirut in March 2002, provides an excellent starting point, with some modifications. Saudi engagement, leadership and funding will be required — especially with regards to a seminal issue often left unaddressed: Palestinian refugees.

Without serious discussion of this issue, real conflict resolution is impossible.

As radical a proposal as this may seem, diaspora Palestinian refugees will need to be integrated into their host countries or third-party nations — but with a Palestinian passport and an identity other than that of refugee.

There are roughly 6 to 7 million Palestinian refugees and their descendants.

Many continue to live in refugee camps across the Middle East, including in Jordan (2.5 million), Lebanon (500,000) and Syria (650,000). There are some 850,000 Palestinians registered as refugees in the West Bank living in 19 refugee camps across that territory. Half of the 2.2 million residents of Gaza are considered refugees, and there are eight refugee camps in Gaza.

Leaving aside the question of why Palestinian refugees from 1948 and 1967 continue to live in refugee camps, the time for change has come! Neither the West Bank nor Gaza will be able to absorb all the refugees economically nor demographically. It is doubtful that even a token number will be allowed into Israel. So the refugee problem will not be solved solely on the basis of a “right of return” as envisaged by the Saudi Peace Plan.

Integration mostly into the Arab world, with appropriate compensation (also per the Saudi Peace Plan), is the only feasible path forward. Some Palestinians should go into the GCC nations, which hold few refugees — not even Syrian refugees fleeing Assad. This proposal will be especially difficult for Kuwait and some other GCC countries, as the memory lingers of Palestinian support for Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, which led to the expulsion of nearly 400,000 Palestinians from Kuwait in 1991. Saudi leadership will be critical.

Giving up the goal of a return to Israel or even the West Bank will be gut-wrenching for Palestinians, requiring sacrifice of a concept held for 75 years and substantial funding by the Gulf states and others. This would be a catalytic strategic decision for the Arab world to take, which should be led by Saudi Arabia.

Proposed real resolutions of the refugee issue would move the needle towards overall conflict resolution.

Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington D.C. and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an Adjunct Professor of International Law at Georgetown University Law Center.