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Where the Russia-Ukraine war is headed in 2024

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, nearly one-fourth of Ukraine’s population remains displaced. Thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, and several cities and villages destroyed. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have died, and the Russian Federation has lost tens of billions of dollars in defense equipment.

Despite the devastation caused by the war, Russia shows no signs of ending its military incursion. Instead, Ukraine and Russia will be preparing for an extended war into 2024.

Some international experts now believe that the war is heading toward a stalemate. Some of them argue that Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed due to inadequate training. Others claim that the Ukrainians had “no chance” of defeating Russia’s forces in southern and eastern Ukraine. Some even believe that Ukraine is “bound to lose the war.” Finally, they have argued that because Ukraine failed to reclaim significant territory, its leaders must accept a cease-fire, believing that will stop the fighting and prevent the additional loss of life.

These takes are all misguided.

First, Ukraine made several gains in 2023. According to a New York Times report, Ukraine reclaimed more than half of the land Russia had captured since the start of the war in February 2022. The Ukrainians liberated villages and towns in the south and east in quick succession.

Ukraine also had other successes. For example, the Ukrainians disrupted Russia’s operations around the Crimean peninsula. They damaged Russian radars, air defense and ships on the Black Sea. This allowed the Ukrainians to expand grain shipments. Finally, the Ukrainians broke through Russian defenses on the Dnipro River, where Ukrainian forces advanced farther in Kherson. In other words, while the counteroffensive may not be moving as quickly as some had anticipated, the Ukrainians have made “steady gains in a set-piece battle against a heavily entrenched force.”

There were also challenges, which is why some view Ukraine’s counteroffensive as unsuccessful. Southern and eastern Ukraine are currently fortified by the Russians. As Ukrainian forces make slow progress in these regions, they have encountered trenches that span several kilometers. This disrupted the advancements of Ukrainian forces and military equipment.

In addition, Russian troops heavily mined parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers have been forced to demine these areas, and the Ukrainians are taking precautions to prevent casualties. Due to these slow advances, some deemed Ukraine’s counteroffensive a failure as the Ukrainians failed to liberate Crimea and the Donbas.

The U.S. has also had its successes and failures. To date, the U.S. has provided more than $46 billion in defense assistance to Ukraine and sent more than $26 billion in financial and humanitarian aid. These materials have allowed the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians in northern Ukraine, and it has helped them make advancements in the south and east. Despite these successes, the slow pace at arming Ukraine was alarming, and it may have prolonged the war. Delays in assistance gave the Russians time to fortify their positions in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Finally, Europe had mixed results with its aid to Ukraine this year. On one hand, the European Union continues to stand firm with Ukraine, having provided Ukraine more than 30 billion euros in financial and humanitarian assistance. This aid was used to help rebuild Ukrainian hospitals, schools and residential areas. The EU also provided nearly 30 billion euros in defense equipment.

This Western weaponry allowed Ukrainian forces to target Russian ammunition depots and factories deep within Russian territory, and it helped the Ukrainians stunt Russian advancements. Despite this continued support and success, it has been reported that the Europeans were “too slow” to help Ukraine, especially as it launched its counteroffensive this summer. Hesitations in providing advanced defense equipment to Ukraine allowed the Russians to fortify their positions in the south and east. Had the Europeans acted sooner, this may have “changed the course of the war.”

Given the mixed results in 2023, what might come next?

First, Ukraine. Throughout the war, Ukrainian morale has remained high. The majority of the country supports its president and the Ukrainian military. Most Ukrainians believe they will win the war, and they demand a complete removal of Russian forces from Ukraine. Ukrainian troops and volunteer battalions will continue to work hard as they are determined to win, and they will find ways to punch through Russian defenses in the south and east. Finally, it is unlikely that Ukrainian public opinion on the war will change as Ukraine has fought Russia for independence for hundreds of years.

Despite Ukraine’s strong commitment to end the war, there are concerns over how the U.S. and Europe will proceed in the new year. Some warning signs are already here. For the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine aid has been blocked in Congress. Several Republican elected officials in the House and Senate now oppose aid to Ukraine.

There are also concerning developments in Europe. During the September 2023 parliamentary election in Slovakia, a populist party headed by a pro-Russian individual won the election. Now, Progressive Slovakia, the country’s ruling party, has stated that it will stop sending aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, an anti-EU and anti-Ukraine party recently won the November 2023 Dutch general election. Like Progressive Slovakia, the Party for Freedom has pledged to stop sending aid to Ukraine.

This is not an accident. According to a Pew Research Center study, European populist groups are on the rise. They are also gaining traction in the U.S. Many of these groups oppose sending aid to Ukraine.

Given that several of Ukraine’s European allies (such as Belgium, Finland, Germany and Romania) will be holding their own local and regional elections next year, this could lead to further trouble. The outcome of these elections will determine the future of additional European aid to Ukraine. Election results during the 2024 elections in the United States will also be crucial to the future of American assistance to this Eastern European state.

Finally, there is Russia. While the Russians took tremendous losses throughout the war, most Russian citizens support the invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government show no signs of ending the war. Recent reports also indicate that the Russian government rearranged its budget to prepare for a “long war in Ukraine.” Given Russia’s unwillingness to end the war, the only way to end the conflict is on the battlefield. Europe and the U.S. must do everything it can to ensure that Ukraine achieves a complete and total victory. Otherwise, if Russia is not defeated, then the invasion will continue, and war fatigue will settle in.

Overall, despite some setbacks, Ukraine made important gains in 2023. The Ukrainians reclaimed additional territory in the south and east. They disrupted Russian efforts around Crimea, and they reestablished a corridor to send grain outside of the country. Progress may be slow, but the Ukrainians are gaining ground.

Now, Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe must work together to make another push against the Russians. Should American and EU public support remain strong for Ukraine, and if American and European leaders can increase the speed at which they provide defense aid to Ukraine, then the Ukrainians will win.

A Ukrainian victory is achievable. But the U.S. and Europe need to decide if they are determined to help Ukraine finally end the war.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. 

Tags russia Russia-Ukraine war ukraine

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