How 2023’s boiling concerns will spill over into 2024

2023 was a turbulent year for the world — politically, economically and culturally — and 2024 figures to be even more so. With roughly 49 percent of the world in 64 different countries set to hold national elections in 2024, the most in history, the new year features to be just as unpredictable.  

In the U.S., it is highly likely that both the Democratic and Republican nominations for president are wrapped up by Super Tuesday, with the current frontrunners — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — representing their respective parties, in the first presidential rematch since 1950.  

Given that a majority of voters would be “very” or “somewhat dissatisfied” with both Trump (58 percent) and Biden (56 percent) on the ballot, per an AP/NORC poll, this is shaping up to be the least-desired presidential election in modern American history and also may be one of the closest. The RealClearPolitics average of recent public polls currently has Trump leading Biden by 2 points, a statistical tie. 

Despite the not-so-hidden desire among many Democrats for the current president to not seek reelection due to his age and infirmities, and in spite of wariness among many Republicans toward re-nominating a one-term ex-president embroiled in legal and personal controversy, all signs point to a Biden-Trump rematch. 

Historically, presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent, and with Biden’s approval rating nearly identical to Jimmy Carter’s 37 percent approval on the eve of his landslide defeat in 1980, it is fair to say Trump may have a slightly better shot at winning.  

The caveat of course, is that while Trump does slightly outperform Biden in the polls, Trump is also highly unpopular, and may face additional challenges in terms of states barring him from their ballots as his legal cases proceed, so despite Trump’s narrow advantage, we should expect a historically close election in 2024. 

In a country so bitterly divided, where both presidential candidates are deeply flawed, the campaign will likely prove to be devoid of legitimate policy debates and animated largely by personal attacks. The race will come down to which president Americans feel made their own lives better, and who is less ill-equipped to oversee an economy on shaky grounds and restore order in an increasingly unstable world.  

Control of the U.S. House will similarly hinge on the mood of the country and indeed will be a lesser-of-two-evils choice for many Americans, as just 38 percent have a favorable view of congressional Democrats, and even fewer (32 percent) say the same of congressional Republicans, per an Economist/YouGov poll.  

The House will come down to a handful of districts, though frustration with House Republicans’ chaotic reign may be enough to help Democrats secure a narrow win. However, if Republicans can put aside the divisiveness they have displayed since 2022’s midterms, and unite around a focused message, they have a much better chance of keeping the House. 

The Senate is much less contested, as Democrats are defending a razor-thin majority in a year where the electoral map is more favorable to Republicans. 

Of course, nothing is predetermined, and the 2024 national elections will hinge in large part on the economy and world events, and which party voters ultimately trust more to address both. 

On the former, 2024 will likely see a continuation of the prior year’s rise in the stock market — albeit smaller than 2023’s 24 percent gain — as inflation continues to decline, and the much-hyped recession appears avoided for now, leading the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates towards the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second. 

Thus, despite the failure of Bidenomics to catch on, Biden will almost certainly continue running on the economy and historically low unemployment, while Trump focuses on extending his 2018 tax cuts as a way to boost growth and prosperity.  

If, as predicted, inflation meaningfully nears the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target by election time, voters may give Biden the benefit of the doubt and see the economy as strong, which by many metrics it is, although it may not be enough to overcome the president’s dismal 37 percent approval rating on the economy. 

Geopolitically, the war between Israel and Hamas will certainly continue throughout the beginning of the new year, as will U.S. pressure on Israel not to widen the war to include Hezbollah, the Houthis or their Iranian masters. 

By sometime in mid to late January, Israel may shift to lower-intensity fighting, using surgical raids instead of the full-scale war we’re seeing now, although the events of Oct.7 have destroyed Israel’s former perceptions of the conflict with the Palestinians, and it is incredibly unlikely that there will be a return to serious negotiations on a two-state solution or final peace settlement.  

In that same vein, American pressure on Israel and moderate Arab states to coordinate a robust leadership change in a revamped Palestinian Authority which would be able to rule Gaza “the day after” will likely fail, given its deep unpopularity among Palestinians and Israel’s strident opposition to further empowering a Palestinian Authority which is contaminated with antisemitism and glorification of terrorism.  

The war in Ukraine, now entering its third calendar year, is likely to remain a stalemate for at least the first few months of the year, given both sides’ material constraints, exhaustion and Russia’s presidential election in March.  

Putin, despite having virtually no opposition, is unlikely to embark on another round of mobilization before the election, lest he risk domestic unrest, and instead will look to present himself as willing to end the war through a ceasefire, as he has begun doing according to reports in the New York Times. 

To that end, growing American skepticism to continued funding of Ukraine, along with America’s deepening geopolitical isolation over support for both Israel and Ukraine, means Biden will likely push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept some semblance of a ceasefire, even though Zelensky has made no secret of his rejection of any plan which includes Russian troops on Ukrainian territory.  

How long Zelensky can rebuff international pressure to accept a ceasefire, even one biased towards Russia, is an open question, and one that will ultimately decide the course of the war in the new year.  

Ultimately, while 2024 is likely to be a rocky, turbulent year, beginning in the shadow of two wars and ending in what figures to be an incredibly divisive U.S. presidential election, each year brings its own twists and turns, and I hope that this year, the positive ones far outweigh the negative.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”