What to expect in Latin America in 2024

2023 was marked by an unprecedented migratory hemorrhage, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro’s threats of war against Guyana, an attempted coup in Guatemala, religious persecution in Nicaragua and the overwhelming victory of Javier Milei in Argentina. 

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean expects the region to maintain a low growth rate: 1.4 percent for South America, 2.7 percent for Central America and Mexico, and 2.6 percent for the Caribbean. 

In 2023, overall inflation in the region was 3.8 percent, much lower than the 8.2 percent recorded in 2022. This year, the decline in the inflation rate is expected to continue. The average regional inflation rate is expected to be 3.2 percent. 

The new year will be marked by five regional elections. Mexico, El Salvador, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay will all elect new presidents. Even Venezuela could go to the ballots, although real and credible elections are unlikely. 

In Argentina, the left-wing unions and picketers will not give Milei any respite. The libertarian head of state will have to demonstrate political skill and Solomonic wisdom to deal with Argentina’s anemic economy and the violent opposition he faces in the streets and in the parliament.

Meanwhile, Milei is showing signals of an outstanding foreign policy. He already announced that Argentina will not be part of the economic group known as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and announced that his administration will not send ambassadors to the regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. His firm and clear example will tip the scale in the international forums.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro closes the year dotted with complaints of alleged corruption, attacks against the free press, drug trafficking and electoral financing scandals and criticism of excessive spending. His popular support has fallen quickly.

Brazil will exercise catastrophic leadership as the new head of the G20. Leftist Presient Lula da Silva has insisted on rolling out the red carpet for Russia President Vladimir Putin and winking at dictators. He will continue his crusade against the dollar’s hegemony and his scathing attacks against Israel and Ukraine. 

The Brazilian president will continue to promote his populist green agenda with one hand, while with the other advancing his efforts to be part of the OPEC oil organization. Social programs will keep growing at a slow pace. 

Chile will have municipal elections in October, which will serve as a barometer for the leadership of President Gabriel Boric, amid slow projected GDP growth of 1.9 percent. 

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is betting big on prolonging his legacy through his anointed successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, the favorite in the presidential polls. Xóchilt Gálvez still has a few months to reverse the trend and surprise. AMLO leaves a negative record in security, with more than 161,000 murders over the last five years. The strategy of “hugs not bullets” has not managed to reverse the power of the drug traffickers, nor their brutal violence. The militarization of Mexico leaves a negative precedent that could worsen this year. 

In foreign policy, Mexico has a difficult year ahead with the elections in the U.S. in November coming after its own elections in June. The elections could cause a significant change to bilateral relations on issues such as drug and migration policies. 

Guatemala has demonstrated the expansive and clear influence of Daniel Ortega’s corrupt model throughout the region. Last year featured the worst election in Guatemalan history in terms of respect for popular decisions. The coming year will not be easy. The battle for democracy is not over, it is just beginning. 

Honduras begins the year assuming the pro tempore presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. President Xiomara Castro will continue to pulverize national institutions and act as an unofficial spokesperson for the regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. 

El Salvador will have presidential and legislative elections in February. President Nayib Bukele will likely win an overwhelming victory, despite much international criticism. The pragmatism of the international community, as well as ongoing armed conflicts elsewhere, will allow Bukele to fall off the radar comfortably. 

Panama and the Dominican Republic will hold elections in May. Both countries have established relatively solid democracies, albeit not without problems. Corruption, money laundering and drug trafficking continue to be enormous challenges. 

Finally, the dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua will continue their oppressive ways. Maduro has learned to negotiate by trading sanctions relief for elections, criminals for innocent citizens. There is a remote hope of elections, but one thing is certain: They will not be fair or transparent. He will never hand over power without intense pressure from the international community, if even then. 

Maduro’s war threats against fast-growing Guyana, rich in oil and precious minerals, could get out of control. The potential for a major conflict could be the worst news of 2024.

Cuba’s regime is celebrating its 65th anniversary of misery and repression. With 88 percent of Cubans in extreme poverty, 13 points more than in the previous year, and more than 1,060 political prisoners, the Cuban dictatorship continues to blame the so called American embargo for its monumental economic failures. Miguel Díaz-Canel lied in claiming that this will be a better year for the people. 

Nicaragua is closer to China, but further from democracy. The first official meeting between Ortega and Xi Jinping is expected this year. The regime is accelerating the transfer of power to his son and successor, Laureano Ortega. The Christian church in Nicaragua will continue to be persecuted, unless the international community pays more attention to this unprecedented problem.   

Last year began with just one major war; 2024 begins with two, plus the threat of new armed conflicts. Maintaining Latin America as a zone of peace will be one of the new year’s great challenges. Another great task is the fight for democracy and human rights. The pragmatism of the international community has been atrocious, and the consequences catastrophic. This year must be better. Let’s keep hope alive in 2024. 

Arturo McFields Yescas is an exiled journalist and former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States. He is also a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps.