In its cold war with China, the US cannot afford to neglect Pacific island nations

The United States is essentially engaged in a second Cold War, this time against China and its ruling communist party. As in the first Cold War against the Soviets, we must engage proportionally and provide for our common defense, working in concert with our allies, as we did then.

After World War II, this meant close cooperation with even the smallest nations of Western Europe. Today, it also entails close engagement with even the smallest friendly nations in the Pacific. And this is one area where American policymakers should be deeply worried right now.

Ten months ago, China was already using influence operations and elite capture to entice Pacific island nations to pledge their allegiance to Beijing and turn away from Taiwan. Some of the islands have since given in to China’s inducements or succumbed to its pressure.

On Monday, the newly elected government of Nauru announced it would end further official exchanges with Taipei, flipping its allegiance to Beijing, reportedly in exchange for more than $100 million per year for an indefinite period of time. 

Nauru’s embrace of China and Xi Jinping could have been expected. Nauru’s new president, David Adeang, has previously praised the totalitarian regime of communist Cuba and banned media interviews of his opposition in parliament. During his previous service in parliament, he helped establish relations with two Russian puppet-states, the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in exchange for millions of dollars in “economic assistance” from Russia (which apparently never came through).

In my time as ambassador to Nauru, I traveled to the windswept remote island, met its kind-hearted people and maintained regular contact with then-President Lionel Aingimea. He professed to be a staunch anti-communist, aware of the growing Chinese threat, and the importance of confronting it.

It was an honor to sign the Nauru-United States Investment Incentive Agreement with my Nauruan counterpart, Michael Aroi, offering U.S. investment support through the Development Finance Corporation. Aingimea also worked with our State Department to support the Clean Network, to shield his nation from high-risk Chinese technology being embedded in its 5G internet systems.

Nauru’s flip to Beijing is therefore disappointing, if unsurprising. 

My approach as ambassador to five Pacific island nations was based on the idea that regular and substantive engagement and support could go a very long way. Regrettably, we seem to be missing opportunities to bolster our ties with Pacific Islanders, who have a natural bond to the people and principles of the free world.

As Admiral Mike Steudeman USN (Ret.) stated in a powerful speech one year ago when serving as commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, “The China problem is more gargantuan than it is understood or appreciated.” Absent a quick and diligent expansion of our engagement in the Indo-Pacific, this gargantuan problem will soon become an astronomical one.

The administration and Congress, working in concert with our Five-Eyes partners and others, must consider and implement at scale those things that have worked well in the Pacific and at a relatively low cost.  

The Pacific island nations of Tuvalu and Palau will hold general elections this year — Tuvalu today, on Jan. 26, and Palau on Nov. 12. The pressure from Beijing on these island nations and others is immense. The costs and the negative impact that further flips would have across the Pacific are hard to overstate.

Former Tuvalu Prime Minister and current opposition leader Enele Sopoaga has made concerning statements in recent months. He committed to scrap a treaty with Australia if elected to lead the government. Current Finance Minister Seve Paeniu, who is said to maintain close contacts with China, has also suggested that Tuvalu would review its ties to Taiwan after the election.

The Chinese Communist Party has made clear that its aim is to create a “Community of Common Destiny for Mankind,” replacing the rules-based order of the world today with something China controls. China is creeping across the Pacific, island nation by island nation. The U.S. and our allies had best remember the history of another aggressive adversary in the Pacific, or else, soon enough, history may repeat itself.

Joseph Cella served concurrently as U.S. ambassador to Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga and Tuvalu from 2019 to 2021. Founder of the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast and a co-founder of Catholic Vote, he is director of the Michigan-China Economic and Security Review Group.