The world is just weeks away from marking a grim anniversary.
It was Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops and multiple armored divisions streamed across Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders, while coordinated missile strikes were launched against military targets in Kyiv and other major cities across the country.
Putin was confident that this would be a “lightning strike” that would topple Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensy’s government, rid the country of “neo-Nazis,” stop the threat of NATO breathing down Russia’s neck and pull the thriving democracy into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Putin’s fantasy did not materialize. Still, Ukraine has seen nearly two years of brutal Russian attacks, the occupation of a significant swath of eastern and southern Ukraine and multiple instances of alleged war crimes committed by marauding Russian troops and mercenaries. The consequences of this persistent violence have, unsurprisingly, been the widespread destruction of thriving communities and extensive damage to critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
Through it all, Zelensky and the vast majority of Ukrainians have sustained a remarkable level of confidence in their ability to resist and ultimately prevail against the Russian invaders. Ukraine’s fighting forces are well-trained and highly motivated. But it is undeniable that unwavering U.S. and EU support for Ukraine’s critical military needs must continue for “as long as it takes.”
Democracy is on the line and Putin’s indefensible desire to overwhelm Ukraine is intolerable — but so is the continued loss of life and destruction of communities if the war drags on indefinitely. The urgency of stopping the violence is hard to overstate, whether the end to hostilities comes from a negotiated settlement or because Zelensky’s forces push Putin’s army back across the borders that existed before the February 2022 invasion
There’s no question that standing strong against Russia has cost Ukraine dearly. While government officials are reluctant to release precise information about military or even civilian losses, credible reports indicate that there have been an estimated 200,000 Ukraine military casualties since the invasion more than 23 months ago, and at least 12 million Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes.
So, how would Ukraine and its allies approach the daunting task of planning for post-war recovery?
Let’s start with the basics. Vast regions of the war-torn and occupied territories will require significant de-mining that will involve clearing farmlands, fields and neighborhoods of deadly bombs, tripwires and booby traps. UNICEF has been leading critical efforts to educate Ukrainians, including children, on the dangers of landmines and explosive ordinance, and the process for reporting them. But no matter when the combatants and the instruments of war are gone, thousands upon thousands of unexploded mines and munitions will slow down efforts to reinhabit regions that had been occupied by the armies of Russia and Ukraine.
Some have called for the development of a new Marshall Plan, modeled after the U.S.-led strategy to rebuild Europe after the massive destruction inflicted by existential battles in World War II. Damage to infrastructure, housing and the economies across Europe was initially unfathomable, but the plan was ultimately successful.
Would there be value in exploring the idea of a 21st century version of the Marshall Plan, with Ukraine at the helm, supported by the U.S., the European Union and other allies? It’s an idea worth considering.
But beyond the physical wreckage and direct casualties of war, life for many families in Ukraine has become a daily ordeal of vulnerability to Russian attacks, financial fragility and grieving the loss of loved ones who have fallen in combat. All of this will need to be addressed in thinking about the parameters of Ukraine’s recovery.
Five million children had their education disrupted in the first year of the war, while 72 percent of Ukrainian parents have said their children require additional efforts to compensate for gaps in their education. Researchers at Human Rights Watch found that some 3,428 Ukrainian educational facilities have been damaged in the war, while 365 have been destroyed. Psychological trauma among children exposed to the ravages of war is widespread.
Fulsome recovery of Ukraine will therefore need to address extensive, war-related disruption of societal and civic institutions, including the revival of Ukraine’s vibrant culture, arts scene, world-class science and technology capabilities and economy, including its vast agricultural productivity. It’s worth remembering that Ukraine has been the sixth-largest global provider of grain and corn to countries as diverse as China, Spain and Bangladesh.
How will the progress of recovery be measured?
Assessing how much of the infrastructure and built environment has been restored and tracking how well civic institutions are functioning will help gauge where things stand at any point during the recovery process.
But there’s another perspective I’ve found useful.
After decades of working on the recovery of communities following extreme natural disasters — including Hurricanes Andrew in South Florida, Maria in Puerto Rico and Harvey in Texas, plus tornadoes and severe drought — it seems to me that children might be the true “bellwethers of recovery.” This essentially means that if the children in a community impacted by disaster are finally living in permanent, secure homes, regularly attend school, have access to needed health services and have opportunities to engage in age-appropriate play and social activities, we can be relatively confident that the community, in general, is recovering from whatever trauma it had been through.
What about the cost? The physical rebuilding of industry, infrastructure, schools and residential communities, alone, could reach nearly $500 billion according to the World Bank. Similar estimates have come from the European Union and the United Nations.
By any measure, the cost of post-war recovery will be steep. But we cannot fail to ensure that Ukraine is a safe, secure and future-facing democracy. Furthermore, Russia must never again seek to run roughshod over a free, democratic nation.
Perhaps most importantly, Ukraine’s children must see a future filled with hope, opportunity and peace. Getting to that point may be the best way to know that Ukraine is back.
Irwin Redlener, MD, (@IrwinRedlenerMD, www.IrwinRedlener.org) is an adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, founding director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness and the co-founder of Ukraine Children’s Action Project. He is the author of “Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared for Megadisasters and What We Can Do Now” and “The Future of Us: What the Dreams of Children Mean for 21st Century America.”