Gaza may be the crucible for new order in the Middle East

The Middle East is at a hinge moment. The old order is collapsing, and a new one has yet to emerge. While the region’s tectonic shifts predate Hamas’s terror attack on Oct. 7, the ensuing conflict in Gaza and its reverberations across the region are the crucible in which the new contours of the Middle East will take shape. 

The United States — still indispensable despite its waning influence — must seize this moment and, through bold, creative diplomacy, help catalyze the transformation of unspeakable tragedy and trauma into an opportunity for lasting peace and prosperity.  

Ramadan’s start today and the hope for another, longer humanitarian pause and hostage release mark a critical crossroad in the war: One road leads to deepening violence and possibly a region-wide conflagration; the other points toward transformational peace crowned by the resolution of the long-festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israel’s broader integration into the region. 

The divergent paths are that stark. There is no third way. The myth that the conflict can be managed has been irrevocably shattered by flashpoints emanating from Gaza across the Middle East. Any of these could erupt into a much broader conflict, plunging the region into decades of instability and threatening global security. 

Even before the current turmoil, the Middle East was at a disruptive juncture — a 70-year point of discontinuity — moving from an age of American dominance to a new, multipolar era. The chaotic U.S. pullout from Afghanistan in August 2021 and America’s non-response to a massive Iranian-backed drone attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil facility in 2019 deepened regional perceptions of U.S. withdrawal and unreliability.  

Empowered by a greater sense of agency, regional actors — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, to name a few — have increasingly sought to solve their own problems and de-escalate tensions. This has led to a series of region-driven transformations. The Arab League welcoming back the once-ostracized Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Gulf Cooperation Council countries repairing their internal rifts and a warming between Turkey and Saudi Arabia are just a few examples. 

This new multipolar era also features a more active role for China, which notably brokered the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran (although Iraq and Oman also played key roles) and significantly deeper economic and trade ties between Beijing and the Gulf. The accession of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran to the newly enlarged BRICS+ marked another milestone along the region’s path to a multipolar era.  

A weakened, but arguably more dangerous Russia also is a player in the Middle East’s emerging order. Its growing reliance on Iran to fuel its war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of military cooperation, with Tehran providing drones and ballistic missiles to Moscow, threatening to upend the Middle East security balance depending on what Russia provides in return. 

Despite its perceived pivot away from the region, the United States still plays a critical role there. It ushered in the 2020 Abraham Accords that normalized ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. U.S. diplomacy also brought about the successful negotiation of a permanent maritime border between Israel and Lebanon in 2022.  

More recently, Washington reportedly made measurable progress in orchestrating a complex arrangement that would have led to the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Indeed, Hamas may have timed its attack to derail the effort before it gained significant momentum. 

The Oct. 7 attack is a stark reminder that the battle to shape the Middle East’s emerging order is fierce and will resonate over the coming generations. Spoilers and extremists abound who will exploit unresolved conflicts, such as the one tearing at Israelis and Palestinians, without providing a true alternative, let alone peace or security for either side.  

Elsewhere, malign forces will thrive in the face of the region’s longstanding governance, economic and social challenges, usurping popular disaffection over years of pervasive corruption, inadequate public services and anemic private sectors to their advantage. It is the spoilers, extremists and malign actors that will emerge victorious in a Hobbesian, conflict-ridden Middle East. 

The flip side of this narrative envisions a transformative path toward peace, bringing security and prosperity to a region that for too long has lacked both. In a multipolar Middle East, the United States still has a seminal role to play in catalyzing necessary efforts by multiple actors — moderate Arab states, Europeans, multilateral organizations and the broader international community — to solve problems and resolve conflict. 

However, Washington must revitalize and embolden its diplomacy, utilizing its leverage when necessary and sharpening its creative problem-solving to help catalyze a just and lasting peace to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ensuring its protagonists on both sides can live in peace and with dignity.  

This would unlock the region’s vast, untapped potential, laying the foundation for wider regional integration to include Israel. In this admittedly utopian vision, the region’s key stakeholders would work together to address shared challenges, including acute climate impacts, inadequate infrastructure and underdeveloped cross-regional trade. 

Progress on the region’s longstanding ills would be the greatest antidote to neutralize those who benefit from the region’s chaos. Thriving economies that create jobs and effective governance that addresses citizens’ everyday problems would deprive malign actors of the oxygen that sustains them. 

The Gaza war’s trajectory will shape the emerging order of the Middle East. The United States stands at the forefront of stakeholders who can usher in an unprecedented era of peace. Among a multiplicity of players, it remains the indispensable actor. 

However, in the face of declining U.S. influence and growing anti-American sentiment, Washington must step up to reinvigorate its diplomacy while the opportunity remains to positively shape the outcome of the conflict, and with it, the new Middle East.  

Mona Yacoubian is a Middle East expert who formerly served at the State Dept. and as deputy assistant administrator at the United States Agency for International Development.