This summer, more than at any time since Russian troops crossed the border in February 2022, Ukraine urgently needs the strongest possible reaffirmation of the West’s diplomatic, security and economic support.
Military assistance from the United States and European allies is again increasing, but wars are not won only on the battlefield. Political and diplomatic support for Ukraine also require reinforcement. The twin events this summer of the Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Switzerland in June and the 75th NATO anniversary summit in Washington in July offer an unparalleled opportunity to do so.
The June 15-16 summit hosted by the Swiss government may be the last opportunity this year to galvanize wider international opinion about the global implications of the conflict in Ukraine. Just as it did before and after war broke out, the Biden administration can provide the impetus for both a more urgent engagement on diplomacy to achieve peace, and to consolidate allied military support for Ukraine a few weeks later at the NATO summit.
The backdrop to Switzerland has been challenging. Over the past months, the primary objective in Washington and European capitals has been to secure financial and military support for Ukraine’s war effort. It took seven months for the White House to overcome a blocking motion in the House of Representatives on $60 billion of military assistance to Ukraine. In Europe, Hungary held up a 50 billion euros aid package for almost two months before agreeing to its release.
The time that was lost has had an impact on the conflict. Russia used the winter months to prepare for a new offensive as the West debated, and Ukrainian weapons stocks were depleted. Russia now has over 400,000 troops on Ukrainian soil, and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and second largest city, Kharkiv, are under serious threat. Internationally, the diplomatic agenda has become crowded with the crisis in Israel and Gaza absorbing the attention of the White House and other governments. Presidential and parliamentary elections in the U.S. and Europe could result in an atmosphere less supportive of assisting Ukraine.
But it is precisely at moments like these that diplomacy and symbolism matter tremendously, and can remind what is at stake — and not just for Ukraine.
The conference is Switzerland is the most ambitious effort to date to draw nations of the world — not just Ukraine’s Western allies — into supporting an end to a conflict that has disrupted world energy and food supplies, raised the specter of nuclear conflict, produced the world’s second largest refugee outflow, and occasioned hundreds of thousands of casualties.
To date, reportedly over 100 nations and international organizations have committed to attend, though Russia has not been invited to participate. There may be different views on how the conflict can be resolved; many countries have sought to sustain ties to both Russia and Ukraine notwithstanding their votes in the United Nations General Assembly condemning the initial invasion. Ukraine, however, is aware of the nuances.
President Zelensky in his remarks on June 2 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, which brings together defense and other officials from the Asia-Pacific region, made clear Ukraine is “ready to hear various proposals and thoughts that lead us … to an end of the war and a sustainable and just peace.” The Ukrainian government is hard at work with Switzerland on an agenda that can draw together, not divide, international opinion.
That has not prevented Russia and its allies from seeing the summit as a threat. Zelensky in Singapore pointedly focused on China’s efforts to dissuade countries from attending as he met with leaders from Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines and other Asian states. China, with Brazil, has also proposed an alternative conference at a later date. A strong lead by Washington and key European allies is therefore necessary to shore up international resolve at the summit.
There are parallels now with February 2022. At the beginning of the war, presidential and Cabinet visits to Kyiv, and of President Zelensky to Washington, were critical for cementing the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, in the popular imagination and for allies and adversaries alike. They also sent an unambiguous message of political and diplomatic support to Ukrainians as they confronted and defeated an all-out Russian invasion to overthrow their government.
Ukraine needs that affirmation again in June 2024, with Russia once again confident in its aims. The stakes remain high: Ukraine, at least for the rules-based order that held sway for 70 years after World War II and the end of the Cold War, is the defining conflict of our era. Victory for Russia would upend every calculation the United States and Europe have made about their own security and prosperity going forward and erase the constraints on state-on-state violence worldwide.
We are not there yet, but Russia, China and others doubting the staying power of the United States are seeking to undermine the international commitment to Ukraine. Ukrainians will regret that President Biden will not attend the summit in Switzerland, but he will meet with Zelensky in France on the margins of the 80th D-Day anniversary in France. Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris, who will represent the administration, can work with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other world leaders present to rally participants to send an unmistakable message at this critical juncture: Ukraine is not alone.
P. Michael McKinley is a non-resident senior adviser at CSIS and a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.