How Biden gave Bibi a political lifeline

On May 31, President Joe Biden gave a speech presenting a roadmap for a cease-fire in Gaza and a hostage deal that the Israeli government endorsed but hid from the Israeli public. This speech demonstrated the administration’s eagerness for “the day after” to begin and to dampen criticism from across the political spectrum about American involvement in the war.

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might see this as a political lifeline to buy himself a few more weeks of political survival.

After Netanyahu’s longtime policy of managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict tragically failed on Oct. 7, he adopted a similar strategy concerning the hostage negotiations. Since the beginning of Netanyahu’s second term as prime minister in 2009, any time Israel participated in peace negotiations with the Palestinians, it seemed to have done so as lip service. These talks allowed Israel to maintain its intentional ambiguity regarding the temporary status of its occupation in the West Bank while deepening its oppression of Palestinians and expanding settlements.

Netanyahu uses similar tactics in the ongoing negotiations for the release of the 125 hostages still held by Hamas. He has a political interest not only in continuing the war to improve his political positioning, as several commentators have pointed out, but also in prolonging the hostage negotiations without reaching a conclusive result.

Netanyahu has demonstrated time and time again his willingness to alter his positions to stay in power, bolster his political popularity and stabilize his coalition with his “natural partners” — the right-wing settler and ultra-Orthodox parties. For example, Netanyahu changed his position regarding reforms in the judiciary after his indictment in corruption charges. For most of his career, Netanyahu was a proud defender of judiciary independence. Last year, while his corruption trial was still in progress, he full-heartedly endorsed overhauling the judiciary and increasing the government’s influence on the judicial system.

After Oct. 7, the deadliest day in Israel’s history, Netanyahu had an uphill battle to recover public support. Early on, polls showed that while most Israelis wanted to see Netanyahu leave office, most believed it should happen only after the war. Netanyahu had, therefore, a personal interest in the continuation of the war.

One of Netanyahu’s main challenges in assembling support for the continuation of the war is the public outcry to bring back the hostages. Most Israelis are in favor of a deal that would guarantee their return, almost regardless of the price — a recent poll by Hebrew University found that 62 percent of Israelis support ending the war as part of a hostage deal.

But reaching such a cease-fire could risk Netanyahu’s rule because it would signal to Israelis that the “day after” the war had begun and that it is time to demand accountability from their leaders. Moreover, a hostage deal that includes pausing the military operation in Gaza and releasing Palestinian prisoners would destabilize the Netanyahu coalition, making him lose the support of the right-wing parties that believe Israel should achieve “total victory.”

But Netanyahu could not have abandoned the negotiations entirely. The ongoing negotiations were critical in keeping Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s primary political opponent, in the emergency government. Gantz joined the Netanyahu government a week after Oct. 7, claiming that it is in the country’s best interest to have a broad coalition with the military experience he and his political partner Gadi Eizenkot bring as former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chiefs of staff. He emphasized the importance of remaining in the government to support the effort to release the hostages, mainly because of the hawkish position of the settler right.

Thus, Netanyahu’s best political move was to keep the negotiation alive but not resolved. That way, Gantz is tempted to stay in the government to ensure a deal would have sufficient support if it comes to a vote, but the settler right does not need to fulfill the threats of leaving the government in case of a cease-fire. Netanyahu has allowed only minimal wiggle room for Israel’s representatives in the negotiations. Even when there was a breakthrough in the talks, Netanyahu eventually refused to compromise, denying any deal that might result in a permanent cease-fire.

Recently, Gantz threatened to leave the government if it did not promote the hostage deal and agree on a clear day-after plan in Gaza. However, Netanyahu’s renewed hope for a deal based on Biden’s roadmap improves his ability to convince Gantz to withdraw his ultimatum and obtain a majority for the hostage deal in the government. According to sources, Gantz is indeed reconsidering his ultimatum.

Netanyahu is a master of the art of procrastination as a political tool. Postponing decisions is at the core of his policy-making formula. After convincing the Israeli public he could manage the conflict with the Palestinians indefinitely, Netanyahu employed similar tactics to keep the negotiations about the hostage release alive, but not concluded.

Eyal Lurie-Pardes is a visiting fellow in the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute.